316 FXUS63 KARX 270706 AFDARXArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 206 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Unseasonably mild conditions through most of the upcoming week with highs mainly in the mid 70s to low 80s.
- Staying dry, with some low rain chances later next week.
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 205 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Dry and Mild Weather Through Midweek:
A shortwave trough continues to move through southern Canada this morning. With the better moisture staying to the north of the CWA, the only impact from this shortwave for our area will be a wind shift from the southeast to the northwest. These winds will shift back to the southeast Sunday morning as ridging builds back in. Ensemble and deterministic guidance continues to show this ridge over our region through much of next week. The ridge axis will move over the Upper Midwest on Monday and Tuesday then the ridge is expected to flatten out a bit heading into next weekend allowing for rain chances to come back into the forecast. Temperatures over the next week will be around 10 degrees above normal with Monday and Tuesday closer to 10 to 15 degrees above normal. This means highs in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees are expected most days, with the exception of Monday and Tuesday where highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s.
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.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1130 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
CIGS: SKC/SCT through the period with some high level (15-20kft) clouds attached to a passing trough/cool front today. Some threat for low stratus at KLSE Sunday morning.
WX/vsby: only concern is for the potential fog/low stratus at KLSE the next few mornings. T/Td spreads, sfc winds, and the depth of the light wind layer, will be the main factors to keep an eye on. As of now, RAP/NAM suggest the vert wind speeds will be too brisk to support fog late Sat night/Sun morning - but could lighten up enough for 300 ft stratus to spread across KLSE. Something to watch.
WINDS: winds will swing west/northwest with the passage of the cool front this morning. Some increase to around 10+ kts post the front, but those settle down Sat evening as a sfc high moves back in.
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.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.
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DISCUSSION...Cecava AVIATION...JAR
NWS ARX Office Area Forecast Discussion