Yardelle, Arkansas Weather Forecast Discussion

879
FXUS64 KLZK 130456
AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1156 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 109 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
-Dominant upper level ridge will persist over Arkansas leading
 above average temperatures and below average chances for
 precipitation for the majority of the forecast period.
-An upper level trough will approach the Central Plains late next
 week and bring a low-end chance of precipitation to northern Arkansas,
 but model guidance confidence remains low in relation to this
 event.
-Fair, dry, and above average temperatures for mid-Sptember will
 continue to be the theme of the forecast period.
-Expect the worsening of drought conditions over the next week as
 hot and dry conditions have a high confidence of persisting over
 the next seven days.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 109 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
The center of a region of upper lvl ridging will slide eastward from
over the Southern Plains region of the CONUS to over the Mid-South
region of the CONUS transitioning into next week. In response, an
overall warming trend will commence across the CWA and state of
Arkansas for the duration of the forecast period.
Expect temperatures to slowly increase through the forecast period.
High temperatures across a few locations into this weekend and
remaining into next week will reach the mid to upper 90s across a
large portion of Arkansas. Heat index values will increase slightly
to values at or just slightly below 100 degrees; the dry air-mass in
place will keep heat index values from reaching Heat Advisory
criteria, but these elevated values should be taken into
consideration, especially if outdoors for an appreciable amount of
time during the max heating of the day.
Late next week, a weak upper lvl trof will approach the region, this
is at the end of the forecast period and model guidance has deemed
this feature with low confidence in terms of placement and
intensity. If this low chance of PoPs does come into fruition,
rainfall would be isolated and rainfall totals would be limited.
A concern over the next seven days across the CWA and state of
Arkansas will be the worsening drought conditions. A combination of
hot and dry weather conditions will continue to dry out fuels across
the state and contribute to an overall greater risk of grassfire and
wildfire danger.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
The terminals of KLIT, KHOT, and KADF will see patchy dense fog to
begin the forecast period which will drop VSBY to MVFR flight
category, this has been represented by TEMPO groups. The northern
terminals of KHRO and KBPK have had their TAF to include VCSH on
Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening for a few isolated showers
that are expected to develop across northern Arkansas. All terminals
will return to VFR flight category by later Saturday morning and
remain VFR for the remainder of the forecast period or early Sunday
morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     97  68  96  67 /   0   0  20   0
Camden AR         97  67  96  66 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       93  68  93  67 /   0   0  20   0
Hot Springs AR    92  68  96  68 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  92  70  94  69 /   0   0  10   0
Monticello AR     97  69  96  67 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      95  67  95  67 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  95  68  97  67 /   0   0  20  10
Newport AR        97  69  96  68 /   0   0  10   0
Pine Bluff AR     97  68  96  67 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   93  69  97  69 /   0   0  20   0
Searcy AR         94  68  96  67 /   0   0  20   0
Stuttgart AR      92  69  95  67 /   0   0  10   0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...74

NWS LZK Office Area Forecast Discussion