Wright, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

528
FXUS63 KDDC 212021
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
321 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Areas of fog possible early Monday morning with a 30-50%
  chance for visibilities to be 1 mile or less east of highway
  83.
- A slight risk for severe thunderstorms will be possible
  Monday. The main hazard from the strongest storms late
  Monday/Monday night will be large hail, strong damaging winds
  and locally heavy rainfall.
- The risk of severe weather will decrease Tuesday but the rain
  will continue. This additional rainfall may result in ongoing
  water issues in some locations, especially in low lying and
  poor drainage areas.
- A warm start (highs in the 80s) to the work week will give way
  to cooler temperatures (highs in the 70s) Tuesday and
  Wednesday
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Earlier this morning an upper level ridge extended from the
four corners region into the northern Rockies. West of this
upper ridge an upper level trough was located near the coast of
the Pacific northwest. Across western Kansas a surface
boundary/warm front was located between Dodge City and Hays. A
trough of low pressure at the surface was located over eastern
Colorado.
Over the next 24 hours the upper level ridge will move east
into the Plains allowing a westerly flow to develop across the
West Central High Plains. This pattern will bring some warmer
temperatures to southwest Kansas. Increasing southerly flow near
the surface overnight will also draw higher dewpoints into
southwest Kansas and southeast Colorado leading to developing
areas of fog by Monday morning. Confidence is moderate to high
for reduced visibility due to patchy fog, with SREF/HREF
indicating a 40-60% chance of visibility at one mile or less
east of Highway 83. High temperatures on Monday will generally
remain in the 80s...however the latest NBM guidance suggests a
40-50% chance for temperatures to exceed 87 degrees west of
Highway 83.
Increasing moisture and daytime heating Monday afternoon will
lead to increasing instability by late day as a surface
boundary/cold front move to near the Colorado border. HREF mean
surface CAPE values by late Monday are forecast to exceed 1300
J/kg and 0-6km shear exceeding 40 knots. This would suggest that
any storm that may develop late today could be severe.
Currently it looks like due to warm mid level temperatures the
highest probability for storm initiation will occur after 7 PM
Monday and near the surface boundary. These developing storms
late day/early evening will then increase in coverage as they
cross southwest Kansas Monday night as an upper level
disturbance preceding the main upper level trough/low over
Wyoming moves into the Central Plains and a low level jet
develops across southwest Kansas. Early in this event a few of
the stronger storms may be able to produce wind gusts up to 60
mph and hail up to 2 inches. After sunset however the primary
threats will transition to strong gusty winds and localized
heavy rainfall as the storm cluster moves southeast along the
moist/instability axis. Based on this potential the storm
prediction center has placed all of southwest Kansas in a
slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather Monday.
The cluster of thunderstorms crossing southwest Kansas Monday
night will move east/southeast of the area by early Tuesday as
an initial upper level wave passes. The main upper trough/low
over Wyoming Monday night will then track across the central
plains on Tuesday, maintaining thunderstorm chances. At this
time it appears that the severe weather risk on Tuesday/Tuesday
night will be low due to the earlier passage of thunderstorm
cluster and the cooler air spreading into southwest Kansas
behind the cold front. Model guidance and ensemble data further
suggest that the most favorable shear and instability will
remain east/southeast of our area.
Periods of moderate or even heavy rainfall will be possible
from thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night due to ample
moisture and instability associated with the main upper trough.
Ensemble guidance indicating a 30-60% chance of 24hour totals
exceeding 0.25 inches by Wednesday evening, especially north of
Highway 56. This ongoing rainfall, in addition to the possible
rainfall Monday night could continue to lead to localized water
issues. Therefore, a marginal risk for excessive rainfall has
been issued, particularly for low lying and poor drainage areas.
Unseasonably cool temperatures are expected Tuesday and
Wednesday. The latest GEFS and EPS continues to have run to run
consistency in indicating 850mb temperature anomalies of 4-6C
below normal following the cold frontal passage. The Ecmwf EFI
also supports this trend, showing values of -0.5 to -0.7 across
portions of southwest Kansas. This suggests that high
temperatures will likely lean towards the cooler 25th percentile
with a confidence level of around 70%. Areas west of Highway
283 and north of K96 may struggle to reach 70 degrees on either
day.
Upper ridging will gradually build into the Plains late week
which will bring an end to the wet weather as warmer, more
seasonal, temperatures return to western Kansas.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
A few lingering clouds between 2000 and 3000 ft AGL will give
way to VFR conditions by 19z today at Dodge City, Garden City,
Hays, and Liberal. Southerly winds at 10 knots or less will
gradually back to the southeast by 21z today. These southeast
winds at under 10 knots will continue through the overnight
hours and will allow for some areas of fog to develop. The HREF
indicates a 30-50% chance for visibilities of 1 mile or less
between 09z and 15z Monday morning at Dodge City and Hays. We
will need to monitor ceilings falling below 3000 ft, but at this
time, Hays is the only area with greater than a 40% chance of
this occurring.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert

NWS DDC Office Area Forecast Discussion