Woonsocket, Rhode Island Weather Forecast Discussion

218
FXUS61 KBOX 291702
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
102 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry weather continues through Tuesday with less humidity,
but turning cooler Tuesday afternoon near the coast. Trending cooler
Wednesday and Thursday with below normal temperatures and potential
for patchy frost, especially Thu night. Also, a period of gusty
coastal winds will develop around midweek as Hurricane Humberto
makes its closest approach, and high surf and dangerous rip currents
will impact the beaches. A warming trend begins Friday with a return
to above normal temperatures next weekend as the dry weather pattern
continues.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages:
* Warm but less humid today
High pres builds into the New Eng today which will bring warm and
dry conditions with light winds. There will be lots of sunshine but
high clouds well north of Tropical Storm Imelda will overspread SNE
leading to filtered sunshine in the afternoon. Slight cooling is
noted at 925 mb so it won`t be quite as warm as Sunday, but still a
warm day with temps well above normal. Highs will reach the upper
70s with some spots reaching 80F. Light winds in the boundary layer
will lead to developing sea-breezes keeping it a bit cooler along
the coast. Humidity levels will be much lower today as a PWAT min
across SNE will result in dewpoints mixing out into the 40s and
lower 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Mostly cloudy and comfortably cool tonight
* Another warm day Tue, but turning cooler in the afternoon across
  eastern MA
Quiet night tonight with dry weather and light winds. Plenty of
highs clouds will limit radiational cooling keeping lows mostly in
the 50s. A backdoor front pushes south across northern New Eng
tonight and moves into SNE during Tue with winds becoming NE behind
the front. Temps will reach the 70s Tue, warmest in the CT valley
where it may touch 80. But as winds become NE it turns cooler along
the eastern MA coast with temps falling into the 60s during the
afternoon. High clouds in the morning will clear out from north
to south in the afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Prolonged dry period through the upcoming weekend
* Below normal temps Wed and Thu. Patchy frost possible Wed night
  and especially Thu night. Then warming trend Fri with above normal
  temps returning next weekend
* Gusty NE winds near the coast developing Tue night into Wed night
* Large swell from distant Hurricane Humberto to bring rough surf
  and dangerous rip currents to south facing beaches around midweek
Large high pres building south from Canada will bring an extended
period dry weather through the weekend and into the following week.
Very dry air in the column will bring sunny days and clear nights
for most of the period. Will just have to watch Cape Cod around the
Wed to Thu timeframe when colder air moving over warm SST and NE
flow could bring some ocean effect clouds.
Much cooler airmass will settle south into New Eng Wed into Thu with
below normal temps as high pres builds to the north. Lows Wed night
may drop into the 30s with isolated frost over interior northern MA,
but the coldest night should be Thu night when the strong high pres
moves over New Eng with excellent radiational cooling anticipated
with very dry airmass in place. More widespread 30s are expected Thu
night with patchy frost in the typically colder radiators. The cool
airmass will be short lived as a warming trend begins Fri through
the weekend as the surface high slides to the south and strong upper
ridge builds into New Eng. After a chilly start Fri morning, temps
should get back to near normal on Fri, with above normal temps
returning next weekend with temps back into the 70s. In fact, some
80 degree readings are possible by next Sunday. GEFS and EPS
ensembles indicating 30-50 percent probs of 80+ which is a pretty
strong signal for a day 7 forecast.
Hurricane Humberto tracks well out to sea making its closest
approach Tue night into Wed. The main concern with Humberto will be
the increasing swell leading to high surf and dangerous rip
currents. Surf will be increasing Tue with the peak of the high surf
and dangerous rip currents on Wed. High surf will linger into Thu
but will be gradually diminishing.
Additionally, increasing pressure gradient between strong high to
the north and Humberto will bring some gusty NE winds to the SE New
Eng coast Tue night into Wed night with marginal gale force gusts
for some of the coastal waters. Winds gradually diminish Thu as
gradient relaxes with the approach of the high pres.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
06Z Update:
Tonight through Tuesday night...High Confidence.
VFR through the period with high clouds. Light wind today with sea-
breezes through the late afternoon. Light winds tonight
gradually shifting more NW-N late, then N-NE winds 8-15 kt
developing Tue, with 20 kt gusts developing over Cape/Islands in
the afternoon and continuing overnight.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...
Tuesday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.
Wednesday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.
Thursday: VFR. Breezy.
Thursday Night through Friday: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Tuesday...High confidence.
Relatively tranquil boating conditions today with light winds
and seas. Increasing swell from distant Hurricane Humberto will
begin to arrive over the southern waters late tonight into Tue,
with SCA conditions as seas build to 5-7 ft. In addition,
increasing NE winds develop Tue afternoon with gusts 20-25kt
possible, especially southern waters.
Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...
Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft.
Wednesday: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up
to 12 ft.
Wednesday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough
seas up to 12 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.
Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.
Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ235-
     237.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 PM EDT Tuesday
     for ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/BW
MARINE...KJC/Hrencecin/McMinn

NWS BOX Office Area Forecast Discussion