Winslow, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

989
FXUS64 KFWD 211727
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1227 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated severe storms with a hail threat are expected late
  this afternoon mainly west and northwest of the Metroplex.
- A cold front will move through North Texas Tuesday evening with
  increasing storm chances. Near normal temperatures will return
  Wednesday through Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This Afternoon through Monday Night/
Visible satellite and radar imagery shows a decaying cluster of
showers and thunderstorms along the Red River with a notable
decrease in intensity observed over the last hour. Outflow from
this convection continues to settle southward into an increasingly
moist and unstable airmass. The main concern for the rest of the
afternoon and evening will be additional convective potential,
including some severe storms during peak afternoon heating.
Water vapor imagery and RAP objective analysis of the 1.5 PVU
surface indicates an embedded shortwave trough spreading through
northwest Oklahoma at this hour. Ascent ahead of this feature is
resulting in an expanding cloud deck across the western part of
Oklahoma and an uptick in convective activity. This feature and
its associated lift should spread southeast into North Texas
through this evening thanks to northwest flow aloft around a mid
level ridge axis. At the surface, a quasi-stationary frontal
boundary lingers north of I-20 and is being sharpened by
convective outflow to the north. Low level moisture convergence
and theta-e advection has really ramped up over the last few hours
along the I-20 corridor from the western parts of the Metroplex
out toward Abilene. Several hours of heating should result in an
increasingly unstable boundary layer by mid afternoon and isolated
thunderstorms should develop as large scale forcing for ascent
spreads in North Texas. The bulk of this activity should develop
near the maxima in surface theta-e advection and moisture
convergence off to the west and northwest of the Metroplex around
21Z. This is supported by the latest NAMNest and nearly all of the
RRFS ensemble members. The HRRR does seem to be most aggressive
with re-developing convection closer to the Red River and
spreading it south into the Metroplex late this evening, however,
that area is pretty worked over from morning convection and
currently resides within a minimum in instability. We`ll have the
highest PoPs for the rest of this afternoon and evening across our
western and northwest counties with activity diminishing in
coverage and intensity after sunset.
Deep layer shear will increase through the day ahead of the
approaching upper disturbance and combined with modest afternoon
instability, will support a localized severe weather threat
including isolated supercells with large hail. Relatively high
cloud bases would also suggest a wind threat with any organized
convection. Mid level ridging and a more westerly flow aloft should
have more influence across the region on Monday with storm
chances generally less than 10% across the area. Temperatures will
continue 8-10 degrees above normal through Tuesday.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Tuesday through Saturday/
A broad central CONUS trough will continue to amplify on Tuesday
with a shortwave swinging into the Southern Plains during the
day. This will help send a cold front southward through North
Texas late in the day. Showers and thunderstorms will develop
along the front during the late afternoon and spread southeast
through the late evening hours with some potential for a few
strong storms. The main forcing for ascent will begin to pull off
to the east by late Tuesday evening, but a secondary upstream
trough will dig into the Plains on Wednesday. This will
effectively push the frontal boundary into Deep South Texas and
send cooler and drier air into our area. While not a significantly
colder push of area, temperatures will fall back closer to
seasonal norms Wednesday through Saturday with little chance for
additional rainfall into next weekend.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/
VFR prevail across the area this afternoon outside of a cluster
of showers along the Red River. An outflow boundary continues to
push southward from this activity and is about to enter the
northwest parts of the Metroplex, although wind speeds are
generally light behind this feature.
The main concern for the rest of the afternoon and evening will be
the potential for additional storms to develop along this
boundary and farther west near an approaching dryline. Additional
storms should start to develop well to the west over the next few
hours and will generally move east-southeast with time into the
evening hours. It`s a little uncertain whether or not we`ll
actually see storms impact the major airports this evening with
the bulk of the activity likely west and northwest. We`ll continue
the VCTS from 23-02Z to account for any of these storms making a
run at the Metroplex. Otherwise, VFR should prevail with a south
wind 10-15 kt.
Dunn
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    92  74  94  75  94 /  10  30   5  10  30
Waco                92  73  94  74  95 /   5  20   0   5  20
Paris               91  71  91  73  92 /  10  20  30  20  40
Denton              92  73  94  74  95 /  20  30  10  20  40
McKinney            92  73  92  74  94 /  10  30  10  10  40
Dallas              93  74  95  75  96 /  10  30   5  10  30
Terrell             91  72  92  73  92 /   5  20   5  10  30
Corsicana           92  74  94  75  94 /   5  20   5   5  20
Temple              92  72  94  73  94 /   5  20   5   5  20
Mineral Wells       95  71  98  73  96 /  20  30   5  10  40
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion