Winnabow, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

955
FXUS62 KILM 290742
AFDILM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
342 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical cyclone Imelda will move northward out of the Bahamas
today. On Tue, Imelda will slow down and make a turn toward the
east and then begin accelerating, away from the southeastern
U.S. during the mid-week period. Rainfall will spread across
the Carolinas today thru Tuesday with potential 1 to 2 inch
amounts along with locally higher amounts. Dangerous marine
weather and ocean conditions will develop today and persist thru
much of the work week. Drier and cooler weather should develop
later Wednesday through Friday as Canadian high pressure builds
in.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today will see a continuation of showers and storms moving
onshore. From Brunswick County`s coast south, the areas
immediately along the coast have a high chance of seeing up to
1" of rainfall today. Isolated flooding could be observed in
flood-prone areas but the threat of flash flooding has
decreased. Inland areas could see another 0.25-0.5". Tonight
looks to dry out fairly quickly, particularly inland, as
isolated activity could move onshore overnight. Fog may develop
once more overnight but clouds and winds should keep things
patchy.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Weak upper low across the Carolinas at the start of this period
with a tropical plume of moisture being drawn inland ahead of
Tropical Cyclone Imelda. The last of the tropical moisture will
affect the FA during Tue and the source region will get cut off
as Imelda makes its abrupt turn to the east later Tue while the
upper low opens up into a trof. Tue night, Imelda accelerates to
the east, pulling further away from the SE States coast all the
while the upper trof drops southward, with drier and cooler air
beginning to funnel across the area. At the start of this
period, will have a range of POPs with nearly Categorical at
the coast and low/mid chance west of I-95 corridor. Pcpn will
end Tue night with clouds remaining as the upper trof axis
slowly drops across and south of the FA. Looking at highs Tue in
the mid 70s followed by the drier and cooler air funneling down
from Canada late Tue night thru Wed night as upper ridging
expands across the eastern U.S. Wed highs in the upper 70s and
lows Wed night in the 50s. Intervals of clouds during Wed due to
the upper trofs slow progression southward. Breezy NE winds
expected thru the period, with the hiest winds occurring along
the coast which may reach windy thresholds.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Models indicate the upper ridging will dominate the fcst period
as it slowly progresses eastward, reaching the coast at the end
of this period. Subsidence aloft will dominate into Sat with dry
conditions expected. The center of sfc high progged to push off
the Mid-Atlantic coast Sat/Sun with flow NE flow veering to the
east. Look for an increase in moisture and clouds with a low
chance POP expanding west across the FA. Looking at a gradual
warm up during this period, with highs pushing into the 80s by
Sun.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Predominant IFR with occasional showers/storms moving over
terminals leading to diminished VSBYs, likely ~2 SM, in heavier
rain. While rainfall away from the coast may come to an end
Monday night, restrictions will continue due to low stratus and
maybe some patchy fog.
Extended Outlook... Restrictions will continue as clouds and rain
are brought northward from Imelda. Widespread MVFR to IFR vis and
cig restrictions should improve from as early as Tuesday night
onward, but gusty winds will continue through most or all of the
week.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Predominantly SCA conditions through the
period as NE winds increase through the day to +25 kts
sustained by the evening. Seas 3-5 ft in the morning will
increase rapidly through the evening and overnight period,
becoming 7-10 ft tonight due to an increase SE swell at 14-16
seconds.
Tuesday through Friday...Marine conditions will remain
hazardous from both winds/seas Tue thru Thu and likely just
seas Fri as the sfc pg finally relaxes and the strong NE winds
diminish- some. To SCA or Gale that is the question. At this
point, may end up upgrading the Gale watch to Gale Warming just
for the ILM NC waters and adjust the start time to 8am Tue. For
the SC Waters, will leave the Gale Watch up given its
uncertainty at this point. The dayshift will have additional
model data to decipher thru to make the command decision for the
SC waters. The threat for double digit significant seas this
period will run from Tue thru Thu, finally dropping below 10 ft
all waters by Fri. Looking at large Humberto and eventually
Imelda swells both affecting the local waters. And then on top
of that mess, will have strong NE wind driven waves to contend
with. Best chance for pcpn will be Tue into Tue night.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Rip Currents: There is a high risk of rip currents for
Georgetown, New Hanover, and Pender counties today, and may
expand to all beaches Tue thru Wed as Humberto and Imelda swell
intertwine along with large short period wind waves due to
the strong NE winds from synoptic high press ridging across the
area from the north. The strong NE wind driven waves will
continue thru the end of the work week. The end result will be
the production of high surf Tuesday thru Thursday across E and
SE facing beaches.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for NCZ106-108.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for SCZ056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT
     Tuesday for AMZ250-252-254-256.
     Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday evening for
     AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...DCH/LEW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DCH

NWS ILM Office Area Forecast Discussion