Windmill Point, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

105
FXUS61 KAKQ 210727
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
327 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonably cool and cloudy conditions today and Monday. A warm
up in temperatures from high pressure returns early next week.
Unsettled weather returns in the middle to late week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Cooler temperatures in wake of the backdoor cold front today.
- High pressure returns to the area with mostly dry conditions.
The latest analysis shows the backdoor cold front to the south of
the local area this morning. High pressure centered over New England
extends down the eastern side of the Appalachia mountains behind the
front. Low stratus clouds hang throughout the area, clearing some as
the day progresses. Patchy fog cannot be ruled out towards the
piedmont, but expecting less fog than the last two mornings. A few
showers are possible this morning, mostly north of I-64, but the
vast majority of the area will be dry. A weak coastal low pressure
is likely to form off the cold front later today well offshore. A
few high-res models suggest an isolated shower cannot be ruled out
along the coast, so have included slight chance PoPs, but confidence
in this is low at this time. Temperatures today will be cooler in
the upper 70s (slightly cooler along the coast from onshore flow).
Tonight, temperatures will drop to near 60F and some patchy fog
(locally dense) is possible for most of the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Cooler Monday then warmer Tuesday and Wednesday, as high pressure
  remains in the area.
High pressure will continue in the region for the short term
forecast. Temperatures will remain cool on Monday with highs near
80F and lows near 60F, as the airmass brings cooler air from up
north. A positively tilted trough sets up across the US from an
upper low in the Quebec region. Within this trough, an upper low
begins to develop in the central US. In result of the trough, the
high pressure over the region will shift to the south of the local
area and will funnel moist, warmer air on Tuesday. High temperatures
on Tuesday will be in the mid 80s inland and lower 80s near the
coast. A cold front will extend from the NE to the central US, but
will likely remain to the north of the area on Tuesday. However,
there is a slight chance of showers/storms Tuesday afternoon/evening
in the piedmont and northern counties. Expect lows Tuesday night in
the mid 60s. Wednesday`s temperatures will be similar to Tuesday in
the mid 80s for most (lower 80s for the Eastern Shore and northern
counties.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Unsettled weather and cooler temperatures are likely by the middle
  and end of the week.
Ridging will build offshore of the SE CONUS coast, while a strong
upper low dives into the central Plains. Daily chances for
showers/thunderstorms return by the middle of the week due to the
approaching upper low and trough, which is expected to advance
eastward through the MS Valley during the middle and end of next
week as high pressure returns to the Quebec region. This will
additionally bring slightly below average temperatures to the region
by the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 150 AM EDT Sunday...
Degraded flight conditions for most terminals will persist through
the early morning. All major terminals except for ECG are
experiencing MVFR CIGs as a backdoor front moved through the region
earlier now provides low stratus clouds. Some locally IFR CIGs are
possible through 09z at ORF, as there has already been a short
period of IFR, but confidence is lower, so only have included a
TEMPO for now. RIC will likely see IFR CIGs between 08z-14z, then
increasing to MVFR for the majority of the day. Outside of RIC,
cloud decks will increase in the morning to early afternoon (14-18z)
to VFR. NE winds will be 5-10 kt throughout the TAF period.
Outlook: Sub-VFR conditions are expected again Sunday night into
Monday morning with widespread lowered CIGs and patchy fog. High
pressure will then return Monday and Tuesday along with VFR
conditions. Unsettled weather is expected late week with possible
sub-VFR conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- High pressure builds N of the region today into tonight as a
  trough develops off the North Carolina Coast resulting in a
  strengthening northeast wind.
- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the Atlantic coastal
  waters, mouth of the Chesapeake Bay, and Currituck Sound.
- There is a high rip current risk for today and Monday.
1030mb high pressure is centered over New England early this
morning. Meanwhile, a backdoor cold front has pushed well S of the
Mid-Atlantic coast, with an inverted trough developing off the NC
coast. The wind is ENE 15-20kt over the ocean, and 10-15kt
elsewhere. Seas range from ~3ft S to ~4ft N, with ~2ft waves in the
Ches. Bay. The pressure gradient will tighten today into this
evening as the inverted trough sharpens offshore and as high
pressure builds E toward Atlantic Canada. The wind is expected to
become NE 15-20kt with gusts up to 25kt for the Atlantic coastal
waters, mouth of the Ches. Bay, and Currituck Sound today into this
evening. Elsewhere, the wind is expected to be NE 10-15kt with
occasional gusts to ~20kt. Seas build to 4-5ft N to 5-6ft S today
into tonight. Waves in the mouth of the Ches. Bay build to 3-4ft
today into tonight, and mainly 2-3ft elsewhere in the Ches. Bay. The
pressure gradient begins to relax later tonight and especially
Monday as high pressure settles S into the region. SCAs will remain
in effect for the Currituck Sound through this evening, the mouth of
the Ches. Bay through tonight, and the Atlantic coastal waters
through Monday as seas will be slow to subside. Local wind probs for
sustained 18kt wind and 25kt gusts still drop off quickly W of
Little Creek, and have diminished overall, so no expansion of the
SCA is needed at this time.
High pressure settles over the Mid-Atlatnic coast Monday through the
middle of the week. This will result in largely benign and sub-SCA
conditions. However, TS Gabrielle is forecast to become a hurricane
as it curves N and NE to the E of Bermuda. This could result in 3-
4ft seas persisting through midweek. Forecast confidence is rather
low by later this week, particularly with respect to how far S a
backdoor cold front reaches as another high builds into New England,
before lifting back to the N ahead of a cold front approaching from
the NW. Regardless, most guidance depicts sub-SCA conditions
regardless of the forecast details.
A high rip current risk is forecast for today due to an increasing
NE wind and nearshore waves building to 4-6ft. Long period swell (3-
4ft/11-12s) arrives Monday and Tuesday from TS Gabrielle (forecast
to be Hurricane Gabrielle by that point). This results in a high rip
current risk continuing Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Monday for ANZ634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Monday for ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/SW
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...AC/KMC
AVIATION...KMC
MARINE...AJZ

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion