Windmill Point, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

716
FXUS61 KAKQ 221355
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
955 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonably cool and cloudy conditions today. A warm up in
temperatures from high pressure returns in the middle of this
week. Unsettled weather returns in the middle to late week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 955 AM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
- Slightly warmer temperatures and dry today as high pressure
  remains in control.
Morning surface analysis reveals an expansive area of high
pressure off the New England coast wedged southward along the
mountain range. The first day of fall is proving to be quite
comfortable so far, with temperatures in the upper 60s to lower
70s and abundant sunshine. Skies will remain mostly sunny
throughout the day, with no precipitation expected. Temperatures
will be a bit warmer than yesterday in most places, but near
normal for this time of year in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Tonight, lows will be near 60F and another round of patchy fog
is possible.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
- Warm up Tuesday and Wednesday, as high pressure shifts to
  the south and remains in the area.
- Chance of showers/thunderstorms return Wednesday.
A strong upper level low will move eastward across the central
plains in association with a positively tilted trough from central
Canada to the plains. This will push the wedge of high pressure
gradually southward to be centered south of the local area on
Tuesday, funneling a moist, warmer airmass into the region.
Temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will be slightly above average in
the mid 80s (lower 80s near the coast). A cold front will extend
from NE to the central US, but likely remain to the west and north
of the area. However, there is a slight chance of showers/storms
Tuesday afternoon/evening in the piedmont and northern counties.
Lows Tuesday will be in the mid 60s. Temperatures on Wednesday will
remain warm in the mid 80s and possibly upper 80s in the S/SW (and
likely lower 80s for the Eastern Shore). The cold front moves closer
to the area which will allow a chance of showers and storms, mostly
in the piedmont and northern counties Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Lows on Wednesday will be slightly warmer in the upper
60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
- Unsettled weather and cooler temperatures are likely by the middle
  and end of the week.
An expansive ridge will set up off the SE coast during the week. The
upper low and associated trough will gradually advance eastwards
through the week and daily chances for showers and thunderstorms
will return by the middle of the week. A surface front will move in
tandem with the trough, and more widespread rain is expected by
mid/late week as the front gradually moves through the area.
Atmospheric moisture content will between 1.5-2.25", and with the
front acting as a lifting mechanism, our area will likely see some
beneficial rainfall. High temperatures are forecast to be in the
lower to mid 80s Thursday as the front likely remains to the NW.
Temperatures Friday through the weekend will be cooler as the cooler
airmass builds in behind the front. Lows will drop into the 60s.
There is some uncertainty in exactly when the front moves through
the region, so we will continue to monitor any trends and adjust the
forecast as necessary.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 705 AM EDT Monday...
VFR conditions across all major terminals to start the 12z/22
TAF period. Patchy shallow ground fog is possible at RIC and PHF
through 13z. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions today into this
evening with a 5-10kt NE wind, becoming SE and RIC and SBY this
afternoon. Patchy fog is again possible late tonight/early
Tuesday morning.
Outlook: Unsettled weather is expected late week with possible
sub-VFR conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 330 AM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
- High pressure builds across the Mid-Atlantic coast early this week.
- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect today for the Atlantic
  coastal waters.
- There is a high rip current risk for today and Tuesday due to
  some lingering onshore flow early today and then swell from
  Hurricane Gabrielle later today and Tuesday.
1025mb high pressure is centered off the coast of Nova Scotia early
this morning. Meanwhile, a weak trough lingers off the NC coast. The
pressure gradient has slackened and onshore flow has weakened with a
NE wind primarily 5-10kt and 10-15kt S of Cape Henry. Seas remain
elevated ranging from 4-5ft N to 5-7ft S, with 3-4ft waves in the
mouth of the Ches. Bay. SCAs remain in effect through 7 AM for mouth
of the Ches. Bay, to 1 PM N of Cape Charles, and through 4 PM S of
Cape Charles.
High pressure settles over the Mid-Atlantic coast today through the
middle of the week. This will result in largely benign and sub-SCA
conditions with generally an E to NE wind today, becoming SE
tonight, then S-SSE by Tuesday, and SW by Wednesday. Seas subside to
3-4ft N to 4-5ft S by this aftn, with 3-4ft seas persisting through
Tuesday night due to swell from Hurricane Gabrielle as it curves NE
to the E of Bermuda. Waves in the Ches. Bay will mainly be 1-2ft and
occasionally 2-3ft at the mouth of the Bay. Sub-SCA southerly flow
persists later this week as high pressure settles off the Southeast
coast and as a cold front slowly approaches from the NW. Seas
subside to 2-3ft with 1-2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. Forecast
confidence is rather low by next weekend, but the general consensus
is for a weakening cold front to drop through the area with high
pressure building to our N. Of note for next weekend, the 00z/22 GFS
(and its last few previous runs) remain outliers compared to the
ECMWF, CMC, EPS members, and GEFS members.
A high rip current risk is forecast for today and Tuesday due to
lingering onshore flow early today, followed by long period swell (3-
4ft/11-12s) from Hurricane Gabrielle later today through Tuesday.
The rip risk may step down to moderate by Wednesday as swell
diminishes as Hurricane Gabrielle rapidly moves E over the central
Atlantic.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal anomalies remain around 1-1.25ft above astronomical
across the middle/northern Chesapeake Bay, the tidal Potomac,
and tidal Rappahannock early this morning. This has the
potential to produce nuisance to locally minor tidal flooding
for these locations during high tide early this week as water
levels remain elevated.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ650-
     652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ656-
     658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC
NEAR TERM...KMC/NB
SHORT TERM...KMC/NB
LONG TERM...KMC/NB
AVIATION...AJZ/KMC
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion