Wilson, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

414
FXUS64 KLUB 261105
AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
605 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 549 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
- Chilly start to the morning with temperatures back above
    seasonal normals this afternoon.
- Dry and unseasonably warm this weekend, apart form slight chances
    for isolated showers and thunderstorms along the TX/NM state
    line Saturday and Sunday.
- A subtle reprieve in warm temperatures to start next week before
   another warming trend towards mid-week next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Quiet conditions will prevail through the short term period as the
upper level ridge moves overhead from the west as an H5 shortwave
trough and associated low moves onshore the SOCAL coastline. This
synoptic pattern will induce lee cyclogenesis, veering winds across
the region out of the southwest. These warm southerly winds combined
with increasing thickness and height values with the ridge overhead
will influence much warmer temperatures this afternoon in the 80s
and 90s. Additionally, the forecast looks dry across much of the
region as large scale subsidence beneath the ridge suppresses
precipitation potential. Tonight, expect temperatures to be warmer
compared to what we saw overnight Thursday in the mid to upper 50s
as light southerly winds continue.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
The upper level ridge, although rather weak, will remain on hold
through much of the weekend as the upper level trough and associated
low slowly tracks through portions of the Desert Southwest. By
Saturday the low will be centered across the SOCAL/AZ region while
the FA remains encompassed by the western side of the ridge. Flow
aloft looks to remain relatively zonal through most of Saturday
before we see flow begin to back out of the southwest late Saturday
night into Sunday morning. This moist southwest flow aloft will work
to transport beneficial subtropical/monsoonal moisture into parts of
the region. Similar to previous forecasts, the upper level system
will begin to weaken while ejecting into the Four Corners region by
Sunday. Resulting in much of the lift and beneficial moisture to our
west across portions of NM and AZ as flow aloft becomes more
southerly, with H5 jet and moisture plume centered across central
NM. This will likely limit the overall precipitation chances across
the region with the highest chances fixated across areas along the
TX/NM state line. Although precipitation looks less likely, we could
see some slight relief come Sunday but first we must get through
another unseasonably warm day on Saturday with highs in the mid 80s
to lower 90s. To start the new week, height falls correlated with
the H5 trough moving towards the Rockies along with southwest winds
backing out of the southeast in response to the surface high shifting
east will aid in slightly cooler highs Sunday into the start of next
week. There is some indication amongst models of a stratus deck
lingering through portions of the day on Sunday but confidence in
this is quite low to factor in potential effects of this to the
highs. An additional upper level trough will begin to dig into the
PacNW by mid-week next week, shifting a ridge into the West Texas
region which will bring the return of unseasonably warm and dry
conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 549 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
VFR conditions will prevail.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...51

NWS LUB Office Area Forecast Discussion