Wilson, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

268
FXUS62 KCAE 301750
AFDCAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
150 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated to scattered light showers remain possible today as
Imelda heads out to sea. Dry, cool conditions likely through
the rest of the week as NE flow strengthens. Rain chances increase
again late in the weekend into early next week as moisture
increases.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Breezy with diminishing showers this evening
- Cooler and drier overnight
Imelda has made the northeast turn today and will continue to
move away from the coast. Widespread low clouds continue across
the area with lingering showers across parts of the eastern
Midlands this afternoon. As Imelda continues to move away the
deeper moisture over our area should shift eastward with any
lingering showers ending by this evening. Drier air should begin
working into the area as deeper northerly flow develops and
PWATs fall to around an inch overnight. Lower clouds should
dissipate this evening with mainly mid and high clouds remaining
across parts of the forecast area favoring the eastern
counties. Persistent northeasterly winds expected through
tonight with a 25 knot low level jet forecast which will keep
surface winds up overnight limiting radiational cooling. Some
weak cold advection is expected though and expect low
temperatures to be a bit cooler than this morning in the lower
60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Drier air settles into the region Wednesday.
- Notably cooler by Thursday.
A west-east oriented upper trough axis will persist over the region
initially, then begin to drop to the south on Wednesday afternoon.
This will allow a weak cold front to drop through and surface high
pressure to build down from the north along the lee of the
Appalachians ushering a much drier airmass. Model soundings show
that while the low levels dry out considerably, high level moisture
persists so there could be some lingering mainly high level cloud
cover despite no rain chances. A tight surface pressure gradient
will make for a breezy day, with gusts upwards of 20-25 mph at
times, beginning once the inversion breaks late morning and
persisting into the evening. Highs will be near normal, but
overnight lows will be below normal due to the dry airmass and clear
skies.
The dry airmass will persist on Thursday, with LREF mean
precipitable water values ranging from 0.6 to 0.9 inches. Notably
cooler temperatures are also expected, with continued breezy
conditions during the day.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key message(s):
- Dry and cool conditions likely this week
- Rain chances increase near the end of the long term
Strong high pressure will continue to ridge into the region from the
north through Friday, providing dry and unseasonably cool
conditions. The upper pattern will begin to transition late in the
week and over the weekend as an upper trough cuts off over the deep
south. This will allow for the development of an onshore flow and
influx of Atlantic moisture into the area by late weekend,
increasing rain chances into early next week. Temperature will
return to near-normal values Saturday through Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Widespread MVFR conditions expected through late afternoon with
diminishing scattered showers and drizzle. Cigs should gradually
lift back to VFR sometime this evening during the 22z-01z time
frame. Northeasterly winds persist through the forecast period
with some gusts as high as 20 kts this afternoon and again after
15z Wednesday. Winds should subside a bit after sunset with the
loss of gusts and winds stay in the 4 to 8 knot range overnight
with a 25 knot low level jet. This should prevent fog concerns.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant restrictions expected
Wednesday through Saturday.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.
&&
$$

NWS CAE Office Area Forecast Discussion