Wilhoit, Arizona Weather Forecast Discussion

446
FXUS65 KFGZ 140831
AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
131 AM MST Sun Sep 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Seasonable daytime temperatures, lighter winds, and
dry conditions are expected through mid week. Expect low storm
chances to return to areas from the Mogollon Rim southward by
Thursday, with chances increasing and spreading northward over
the region for Friday and Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Quiet weather is expected around northern Arizona
through mid week as the low that brought storms to eastern parts
of the state Friday into early Saturday is moving into the plains
states this morning. Much drier air left in the wake of the system
will remain over our area for the next several days, with light
westerly flow. Daytime temperatures will be within a few degrees
of average for mid September. Overnight lows will be chilly in the
high country the next couple days with the dry air mass in place,
dipping near freezing at the usual cold spots (Tusayan, Bellemont,
Ft Valley) and into the 40s for places like Prescott and Winslow.
High pressure over northern Mexico up into California is forecast
to shift eastward later in the week as a low remains off the
coast. This should cause a more southerly flow into Arizona
helping advect deeper moisture northward. Ensemble mean
precipitable water is still showing a significant increase by
Friday/Saturday. Low shower and thunderstorm chances (10-20%) are
in the forecast Thursday from the Mogollon Rim south, increasing
to 30-60% by Friday and Saturday over the region. There is still
uncertainty in this pattern and the amount of moisture that will
be present in our area as ensemble model clusters show east-west
variation in the position of the offshore low - and this will
impact moisture availability. Stay tuned for updates.
&&
.AVIATION...Sunday 14/06Z through Monday 15/06Z...VFR conditions
expected, no precipitation Sunday. Winds light and variable or
terrain driven overnight, becoming S-SW 5-15kts, gusts to 20kts on
Sunday afternoon.
OUTLOOK...Monday 15/06Z through Wednesday 17/06Z...VFR conditions
expected, no precipitation on Monday. May see a return of isolated
-SHRA/-TSRA to the White Mountains Tuesday. Winds SW 5-10 kts
 daytime Monday and Tuesday, light and variable or terrain driven
 overnight periods.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Monday...Expect dry and sunny weather with
near average temperatures. Afternoon winds southwest 5 to 15 mph
with minimum RH from 10-20% both days.
Tuesday through Thursday...Mostly dry with seasonal daytime
temperatures. Minimum RH generally 10-20%. Daytime winds southwest
through west 5 to 15 mph. A 10-20% chance for showers and
thunderstorms in the White Mountains Tuesday and Wednesday expands
westward to include areas along and south of the Mogollon Rim
Thursday.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...Bernhart
FIRE WEATHER...JJ
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

NWS FGZ Office Area Forecast Discussion