695 FXUS65 KGGW 212029 AFDGGWArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 229 PM MDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) A cold front will move into northeast Montana tonight bringing gusty winds and chances for rain.
2) Smoke from wildfires in Canada may affect air quality this evening ahead of the cold front.
3) A Lake Wind Advisory has been issued for gusty winds from midnight tonight through 6pm Monday.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Above average temperatures today will soon be replaced with below average temperatures will the passage of a cold front. Gusty winds have prompted a Lake Wind Advisory for tonight. Cooler weather with chances for rain and thunderstorms will mainly stay in central and southern Montana. The highest chances for rain remains west of HWY 24. While rain totals have lowered since yesterday afternoon, higher totals remain in southern and central Montana. Localized convection may still produce thunderstorms dropping greater than 0.10" of rain. Looking forward through the week, warm and dry conditions will return with the building of an upper level ridge over the region.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Winds were increased Day 1 and Day 2 with a blend of the current forecast and NBM90. Confidence is lowering in the reduction in visibilities and air quality from wildfire smoke. Areas of smoke remains in the forecast, however, the timing in which we see its effects is less certain.
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.AVIATION...
UPDATE: 1930Z, September 21
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR
DISCUSSION: Clear skies and light winds will continue through this evening. Tonight a cold front will bring gusty winds and chances for rain in central and southern Montana. Highest chances for rain remain west of KGGW. There is low confidence in reduced visibilities due to smoke ahead of the cold front.
WIND: West winds 5 to 10 kts will remain steady though the afternoon before becoming light and variable briefly at 0Z. By 5Z northwest winds will increase to 10 to 20 kts. Winds are expected to diminish Monday night. EQUIPMENT: KSDY AMD NOT SKED will remain in place until METARs comms issue is repaired.
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.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Lake Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM MDT Monday for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley- Garfield-McCone-Petroleum.
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NWS GGW Office Area Forecast Discussion