Wheeler, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

238
FXUS63 KGRR 280734
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
334 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm and Dry Weather Ahead
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
- Warm and Dry Weather Ahead
Latest Satellite has a band of moisture moving through southern
Lower Michigan. However the atmosphere has dried out that anything
moving in is being evaporated. That is a taste of the things to
come. Models remain in agreement as high pressure settles over the
central Midwest and a large negatively tilted trough sits across
Hudson Bay, extending into Newfoundland. High pressure will build
through the first half of the week as warm air advection moves
into the region and the ridge builds well into central Canada. The
High pressure will persist through the middle of the week as the
high pressure positively tilts eastward. This should be due to an
upper level low moving southward along the Western Coast. The
ridge will also be influenced by tropical depression nine and
Hurricane Humberto. It remains to be seen what interactions will
transpire between this, but the latest trends show Humberto moving
northward before heading out to sea. This would seem likely due
to the movement of the ridge and the advancement of the upper
level low along the west coast that might track into the
intermountain west late int the week. All this to say, that
Michigan will remain warm and dry with Max temps 10 to 15 degrees
above normal and lows around to just above normal. So expect highs
in the upper 70s to low 80s with lows in the upper 40s to low
50s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 119 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
VFR conditions should overall dominate the pattern for the next
24 hours. There are some models hinting at the potential for MVFR
cigs and vsbys overnight. SREF has a ribbon of moisture along the
lakeshore and along US 131 corridor between 09Z to 14Z. Latest
ensembles as well have a small chance along the lakeshore. So
there is the potential given calming winds, clear skies and
dropping temps. Inland, the dewpoint depression is to big,
including GRR. However at MKG it is currently 2 and expected to
drop.  Model soundings do have a narrow window for reducing cigs,
though they are overestimating current winds. There is a ribbon of
low clouds traversing the region so this will lower time for temps
to drop.  So given this, will put a line of MVFR at MKG.
Otherwise any reducing cigs and vsbys should improve shortly after
sunrise.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory/Beach
Hazards Statement levels the next several days.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Ceru
AVIATION...Ceru
MARINE...Ceru

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion