Wharton, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

685
FXUS64 KHGX 241744
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1244 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
...New MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
- A frontal boundary will bring showers and thunderstorms today.
  Locally heavy rainfall (isolated totals over 5") could create
  localized flooding issues if the heavy rains occur over
  vulnerable locations.
- In addition to the marginal heavy rain threat, a few locally
  stronger thunderstorms are possible. The primary concern is
  damaging wind gusts.
- Drier air and slightly cooler temperatures prevail into the end
  of the week behind the front.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Widespread shower and isolated thunderstorm activity has developed
across the region as of noon today. Large scale lift will continue
to increase today as a mid/upper trough digs southward into the
region. In addition, a cold front will push through the area,
enhancing LL convergence. Therefore, the chance of deeper
convection (heavier showers and thunderstorms) will increase as
the afternoon progresses. Locally heavy rainfall capable of
localized flooding is the primary concern. Widespread rainfall
totals are expected to be manageable. But isolated totals over 5
inches are on the table this afternoon and evening. For areas near
the coast, the locally heavy rainfall threat will continue into
the overnight and early Thursday morning. We also cannot rule out
isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of locally
damaging wind gusts. But rainfall is the primary concern.
The front should be offshore on Thursday. However, it is expected
to be close enough to the coast to warrant some PoPs in our
southern/coastal counties. Drier and less hot air will be
filtering southward in the front`s wake. By Thursday afternoon,
dew points north of I-10 should drop into the 60s. By Friday
afternoon, dew points are expected to range from mid 50s well
inland to mid 60s at the coast. Afternoon highs Thursday-Saturday
are expected to average in the mid/upper 80s (around 90 in hotter
spots) with lows well down into the 60s (closer to 70 in the heart
of the urban heat island and low/mid 70s at the coast).
As we head into early next week, guidance suggests the initial
build of a ridge and an upward trend in temperatures. However, a
mid/upper low over SW CONUS may help to throw some vorticity our
way, introducing lift and a chance of showers/thunderstorms. For
now, we just have low PoPs across our southern/coastal counties
Monday and Tuesday.
Self
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 555 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
The main forecast concern for today will be the passage of an
approaching cold front and the associated showers and storms ahead
of and along the front itself. This front will be slowly moving
through the area today into tonight from the NW. The shower and
thunderstorm activity is expected to be more spotty/scattered for
the northern terminal sites (CLL, UTS, CXO), with increasing
coverage expected towards the terminals along and south of I-10
(IAH, HOU, SGR, LBX, and GLS). There will be VCTS for much of the
area this afternoon, but increased chances of a TS impacting a
terminal directly as the front slides through. As of this morning,
FROPA looks to occur at CLL/UTS between 17-19z, CXO/IAH between
20-23z, and then not until late this evening or tonight for our
southern terminals. Some isolated thunderstorms will be possible
along and south of I-10 through at least midnight tonight, and
along the coast through early Thursday morning.
Storms today into tonight will be capable of becoming strong to
severe, producing locally heavy rainfall reducing visibility and
locally strong winds gusts.
Southerly to southwesterly winds of 8-12kt will prevail through
this morning ahead of the approaching cold front. Winds will
become variable and eventually predominately northerly after the
frontal passage.
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Southwesterly flow and scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected through the rest of today. Later this afternoon and into
the evening and overnight, the chance of heavier showers and storms
increases as a frontal boundary approaches. Winds will veer westward
as the front approaches before shifting northwest and increasing
somewhat in the front`s wake on Thursday morning.
Despite the front`s passage, shower and thunderstorm chances will
linger well into Thursday. Drier conditions are expected Friday into
the weekend, before rain chances increase early next weeks.
Winds are expected light to moderate from the northwest to north on
Thursday, northeast on Friday, east-northeast on Saturday, and more
easterly early next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  69  87  64  88 /  40  10   0   0
Houston (IAH)  74  88  68  89 /  60  20   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  76  86  75  86 /  80  60  20   0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion