Wenatchee, Washington Weather Forecast Discussion

596
FXUS66 KOTX 181708
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1008 AM PDT Thu Sep 18 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm and dry through the end of the week.
- Sunday cold front to deliver breezy to windy conditions and a
  chance of mainly mountain showers
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the region will bring warm and dry
conditions through the work week. Unsettled weather returns this
weekend with breezy winds and a chance of mainly mountain
showers.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday: A weak upper trough near the coast this
morning will track east with the axis reaching the Cascades in the
afternoon and evening. There is very little moisture with this,
with the main impact being to increase the cross-Cascade pressure
gradient with breezy winds for the Cascade gaps and ridgetops
along the East Slopes of the Cascades this evening. This may allow
for an increase in fire activity for wildfires burning along the
East Slopes. On Friday mid level drying behind the wave will move
over the region resulting in clear to mostly clear skies, and
continued above normal temperatures. And the warmth continues on
Saturday due to mild southwest flow ahead of an incoming upper
trough. High temperatures each day (today through Saturday)
will warm into the 80s. Warm, breezy, prefrontal southwest winds
on Saturday has the potential to mix down dry air to the
surface with GFS and ECMWF RH`s down into the teens across much
of the region. This has the potential to bring elevated fire
weather conditions to the region especially Okanogan Valley,
Upper Basin, and Spokane area where the prefrontal winds will
be strongest.
Saturday Night and Sunday Night: There is good model agreement
that an upper trough will swing across British Columbia sending a
cold front across the Inland NW. Swift mid level westerly flow
with 850mb winds of 20-30 kts will result in a significant rain
shadow east of the Cascades, with rain confined to mainly the
Cascade crest and Idaho Panhandle. This trough will also result in
breezy to windy conditions with west winds. The NBM is
advertising a 60% chance of wind gusts exceeding 40 MPH on the
Waterville Plateau, and the ridges along the East Slopes of the
Cascades. The ECMWF ensemble mean is going for gusts to near 35
MPH for Wenatchee, Spokane Airport, and Pullman. Drier air
behind the front may lead to elevated fire weather conditions
across the Columbia Basin. Also giving that it`s planting
season, patchy blowing dust is something that will have to be
monitored. High temperatures take a dip with readings in the
upper 60s to mid 70s. The drier air will allow for colder
overnight lows Sunday Night. The NBM has lows dropping into the
30s for the colder spots like Republic, Deer Park, Colville, and
Priest Lake.
Monday through Wednesday: 85% of the ensembles dig a trough off
the coast resulting in a building ridge over the area resulting in
warmer and drier conditions. This is up from 70% from yesterday
leading to increased confidence of another warmup. On Tuesday
and Wednesday the NBM is advertising high temperatures back up
into the low 80s, which is about 10 degrees above normal. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: High pressure over the region will deliver clear
skies and light terrain driven winds through the forecast
period. Smoke from area wildfires could reduce visibility
to around 6 miles at KEAT at times.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
in VFR conditions for TAF sites through 18z Friday, except KEAT
where confidence is moderate as visibility could drop below 6
miles on Thursday depending on amount of wildfire smoke.
-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance
For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        86  55  85  54  83  55 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  85  56  85  55  83  55 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Pullman        84  52  82  52  81  53 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Lewiston       88  61  87  60  87  61 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Colville       85  44  84  43  83  45 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Sandpoint      82  50  82  48  81  50 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Kellogg        83  58  84  57  80  55 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Moses Lake     85  53  86  51  85  55 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      84  60  86  60  85  59 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Omak           85  56  86  54  85  55 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.
&&
$$

NWS OTX Office Area Forecast Discussion