Wauchula, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

059
FXUS62 KTBW 051808
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
208 PM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 205 PM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
An upper-level low continues to be situated over Ontario, Canada
with the base of the trough extending all the way down into the
Gulf, where a broad and weak area of low pressure is situated. This
weak low has formed along the remnants of a frontal boundary that
has gradually continued to wash out in the region. Some
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity remains ongoing
across the Gulf in response, with convection continuing to develop
over the FL peninsula as well.
However, the subtropical ridge axis is beginning to build back west.
Drier air that was a potential limiting factor is beginning to erode
as this occurs. Soundings from TPA show the moisture content has now
increased up to around 1.8 inches. There remains some mid-level dry
air that could limit overall depth in convection, but there should
be fairly good thunderstorm coverage across the region this evening.
If storms do develop and grow through this drier layer, then there
could potentially be some stronger wind gusts associated with these
storms.
However, SWFL is probably looking at less coverage than what some
CAMs continue to suggest. This is because persistent cloud cover and
some rain-cooled air from earlier coastal convection is keeping
temperatures only in the low-to-mid 80s through 2PM. With temps
still that low, the instability just is not there to support more
than a few showers this afternoon. Regardless of location,
convection should largely wind down after sunset - with offshore
Gulf Waters really being the only exception. Some cloud cover may
linger overnight if this materializes.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 205 PM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
As the ridge axis continues to shift farther westward, the
longwave pattern in the E CONUS flattens out somewhat. However,
some shortwave energy will remain trapped over the SE, and thus
the area of low pressure will be stuck off the FL West coast. For
tomorrow, this favors an ESE flow and later convective initiation
after a typical warm, humid start to the day. By Sunday, the flow
is back to a WSW direction, and some earlier coastal storms will
be possible before the bulk of the activity transitions eastward.
As additional energy moves through the flow early next week,
troughing remains across the E Gulf waters and FL peninsula. Some
shortwave perturbations look to move through the flow as well. In
response, another front will approach, stall, and gradually wash
out through next week. To the south of the boundary, scattered to
numerous thunderstorms will remain likely. To the north, drier and
more stable air will dominate. The open question will be how far
this boundary makes it. This will ultimately dictate the
conditions experienced each day.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 205 PM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Thunderstorms are looking increasingly likely this evening as
moisture rebounds. This will be the primary aviation impact, with a
window for Tampa Bay area terminals to see thunderstorms on-station
that may cause MVFR to IFR conditions and gusty winds. While gusty
and erratic winds are mentioned, strong microbursts may be possible
as well with thunderstorms that form. A similar setup is expected
tomorrow, before winds veer to a WSW direction later in the weekend
and into early next week as another weak boundary approaches. Longer
windows for convective impacts may be possible.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 205 PM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Showers and thunderstorms that develop over land may move back
towards the coast this evening, with gusty and erratic winds in
the vicinity. The evening and overnight hours will remain the
period with the most likely impacts for the next couple days
before winds transition back towards more of a WSW direction late
in the weekend and into early next week. This will favor the
window shifting to late at night through mid-morning for the
highest thunderstorm coverage across coastal waters. As winds
gradually shift, seas of 2 feet or less are generally expected as
winds remain below 15 knots through the period.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 205 PM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Moisture is generally rebounding across the region, with increasing
coverage of showers and thunderstorms anticipated through the
weekend and into early next week. As winds remain fairly light and
RH values are well above critical thresholds, fire weather concerns
are low at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  91  78  90 /  40  70  20  50
FMY  76  89  76  90 /  50  60  30  60
GIF  76  93  76  92 /  20  70  20  60
SRQ  75  90  77  89 /  50  50  30  40
BKV  72  92  73  91 /  20  60  20  50
SPG  77  89  78  88 /  40  50  30  40
&&
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 4
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
Flannery

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion