Warren, Connecticut Weather Forecast Discussion

765
FXUS61 KALY 251045
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
645 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will move slowly northward across the region
this morning into the afternoon with periods of showers and embedded
thunderstorms. A low pressure system and a cold front will move
across eastern New York and western New England late this afternoon
into tonight with additional showers and scattered thunderstorms
with locally heavy downpours and some gusty winds.  Drier weather
returns Friday into the weekend with high pressure building in with
temperatures running above normal, as the fair weather lasts through
the mid week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:
- Widespread soaking rainfall continues this morning into
  tonight through Thursday evening, with a 50-95% chance for
  greater than 1 inch of rain across the region in the 24 hours
  ending 2 am Fri.
- There is a Marginal Risk(Level 1 of 5) for severe
  thunderstorms from the Capital District and Berkshires
  southward.
As of 227 am EDT...Widespread beneficial rainfall extended
event continues to evolve this morning across eastern NY and
western New England, as low to mid level isentropic lift
increases ahead of the stationary front over northern PA,
southern NY and southern New England. The boundary will lift
slowly northward this morning as a warm front. A stratiform rain
shield with embedded thunderstorms continues to expand
northward. PWATs based on the latest SPC RAP Mesoanalysis are in
the 1.5-1.75" range across the forecast area. The PWAT
anomalies today will continue to be +2 to +3 STDEVs above normal
with a strong low- level jet transporting Gulf moisture into
the region. A mid and upper level postively-tilted trough
extends from the Great Lakes Region southwest into the
Midwest/mid MS River Valley aiding in upper support to the rain
with a closed H500 embedded low over MI. To alleviate with the
persistent dry conditions and D0 to D2 drought over parts of the
forecast area...this is the classic set-up for much need
rainfall. The PWATs will likely continue to slightly rise to
1.5-2.0" with the enhanced water vapor transport and some
rainfall rates of 0.2-0.5"/hr are likely and even higher rates
of 1"/hr are possible with any elevated convection. Some ponding
of water on roadways and poor drainage flooding may occur. The
dry antecedent conditions and high gridded FFG values should
alleviate any flash flood threat. Outside lower probs over the
western Adirondacks for 1" of rainfall (50-60%)...most of the
rest of the forecast area has 70-95% chances for 1" or more
between 06Z/Thu and 06Z/Fri based on the NBM.
A lull in the pcpn may occur in the late morning to early/mid
pm, as the warm front lifts northeast. Some locations in the
warm sector may have a broken line of convection develop ahead
of the wave and cold front. The latest HREFS continues to show
mean MUCAPEs around 500 J/kg near the I-84 corridor with 0-6 km
shear 40-45 KT. Some organized discrete convection may form.
The 0-3 km helicity and/or shear is impressive in the high
shear/low CAPE environment. LCL`s will be lower than usual, but
mid level lapse rates are weak. An isolated wet microburst or
even weak tornado can not be ruled out in the 21Z/Thu to 03/Fri
time frame. The latest 3-km HRRR and NAMnest do vary on the
timing. SPC expanded slightly northward the Marginal Risk (Level
1 of 5) to include the Capital District and Berkshires. This a
tad further north than our thinking for any isolated severe
threat. In the moist air mass, temps will be near to slightly
above normal, as we went slightly cooler than the NBM with
highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s in the valleys and upper 50s
to 60s over the higher terrain.
The sfc wave and disjointed narrow cold frontal rain band with
the cold front moves through in the early evening with
additional periods of rainfall. Some patchy fog may develop in
the wake of the boundary. Total rainfall amounts will range from
1-2" with some locally higher amounts of 2-3" in the
east/southeast Catskills. The cold advection is not that
impressive in the wake of the front (very weak) with lows
falling back into the 50s to lower 60s.
The mid/upper trough will move through on Friday with the
cyclonic vorticity advection focusing some isolated to scattered
showers tapping Great Lakes moisture for the western Dacks and
w-central Mohawk Valley. The better mixing and some downsloping
will allow for partly sunny skies and temps running 5-10 degrees
above normal with mid/upper 70s in the valley areas and 60s to
lower 70s over the higher terrain. High pressure begins to ridge
in Fri night with some clearing skies and light to calm winds
for radiational cooling and lows falling into the upper 40s to
mid 50s. Some patchy valley fog will be possible. The weekend
opens with high pressure over southern Quebec and upstate NY
with fair weather and temps comparable to Fri. Some clouds may
increase from the south due to an inverted sfc trough/old cold
front and an upper low over the Mid Atlantic Region.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The extended forecast period opens with a slight to low chance
of showers mainly from I-90 southward Sat night into early
Sunday with high pressure near the Gulf of Maine and low
pressure near the Carolinas. Some moisture may over run the
bounday northward for some light showers. The H500 closed/cut-
off low over the Piedmont region looks to weaken late in the
weekend for little impact late Sunday into next week. More
sunshine is expected north of Albany to close the weekend. Lows
will be mainly in the 50s Sat night with a few cooler readings
over the Adirondack Park and highs on Sun will be above normal
with 70s to lower 80s (warmest in the Upper Hudson and western
Mohawk River Valleys).
Monday through the mid week will be dominated by fair and dry
weather with high pressure in control which builds in from south
of James Bay. A dry cold frontal passage will move through
sometime Mon night into Tue. The warmest temps of the week will
be Monday with highs 10 or so degrees above normal. Temps cool
down Tue into Wed closer to late Sept seasonal normals. Some
frost may possible by the mid week over the higher terrain
outside of the major river valleys.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12z Friday...Poor flying conditions will persist into this
TAF cycle as a warm front and trailing low pressure lift north into
the region today. MVFR/IFR conditions are primarily expected with
low stratus and rain showers through the daytime. CAMs continue to
favor a break for most through mid-morning before another round of
heavier showers and storms arrives for the afternoon and evening.
Locally gusty winds cannot be ruled out, but not enough confidence
to include with this set of TAFs. Once precipitation ends this
evening, low LIFR stratus is favored mainly at KGFL/KPSF, and has
been added for this TAF. Winds initially will be light out of the
northeast-east around or under 5 kts, with veering to the south-
southwest around 5-10 kts through the daytime into the evening as
the warm front and low move through.
Outlook...
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. Patchy FG.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday to Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Speck

NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion