Walnut, Iowa Weather Forecast Discussion

300
FXUS63 KOAX 232328
AFDOAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
628 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and perhaps a few isolated storms will linger into
  Wednesday morning, mainly south of Interstate 80. Additional
  rainfall amounts of 1/4 to 1/2 inch are expected in most
  areas, though a few isolated pockets of 1" are possible
  (20-30% chance).
- A few sprinkles are possible Wednesday afternoon (10-15%
  chance) with highs remaining in the 70s.
- Dry and warmer weather favored Thursday into next week, with
  highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Early afternoon analysis showed a very positively tilted upper
level trough axis stretching from a cutoff low over the Great
Lakes to another cutoff low over CO and toward the Four Corners
region. Associated precip stretched from CO, along the NE/KS
border and into IA/MO. The band of precip is expected to linger
in areas near/south of I-80 tonight with some guidance still
hinting at some heavier shower or isolated storm development in
that area later this afternoon into early evening. Currently not
expecting those to be too impactful with only some very
isolated pockets of perhaps 1" of additional rain and a more
widespread 1/4 to 1/2". However, if the heavier rain happens to
fall somewhere that received heavy rain last night (e.g.
southern Johnson county), some localized flooding could occur.
Lingering precip associated with the main wave should exit
south by mid to late Wednesday morning. However, another weak
shortwave rounding the back side of the cutoff low over the
Great Lakes will slide through the forecast area, and combined
with a little instability in the cloud layer, could lead to some
sprinkle/light shower development Wednesday afternoon (10-15%
chance). Otherwise, northerly winds will keep temperatures right
around average for this time of year, with highs in the mid 70s
for most. The trough axis pushes off to the east Wednesday
night into Thursday with upper level ridging setting up for the
remainder of the period. This will lead to dry and warmer
conditions into next week with highs mostly in the upper 70s to
lower 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 627 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
VFR conditions are observed across the terminals this evening.
Ceilings around 3,000 ft continue to erode this evening leaving
behind mid to high-level cloudiness. Latest radar imagery shows
a few showers and storms in far southeast Nebraska, but these
should stay well south of KLNK this evening. Fog may develop
early this morning mainly along and southeast of a line from
near KMYZ to KAFK to KICL, but northward extent into TAF sites
is unlikely at this time.
A few pop up showers may occur after 18z at KOMA and KLNK, but
confidence remains low at only 10 to 15% chance of occurrence.
Otherwise, should see a mix of clouds around 3kft to 5kft with
sun. Winds will remain light through the period from the north
northeast.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...Castillo

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion