Vinton, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

531
FXUS64 KEPZ 102020
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
220 PM MDT Wed Sep 10 2025
...New FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 219 PM MDT Wed Sep 10 2025
- Temperatures will be 5 to 8 degrees above average through the
  end of the week, gradually cooling to near normal by the first
  part of next week.
- This afternoon and Thursday will be mostly dry, with a slight
  chance for thunderstorms in area mountains and near the Arizona
  border.
- Moisture spreads over the whole region Friday through Monday
  with scattered mountain and isolated lowland thunderstorms and
  showers each day.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1020 AM MDT Wed Sep 10 2025
High pressure aloft is shifting more to the east in response a
strengthening low pressure system moving onshore in the Pacific
northwest. There is a northward moving mid level plume of
moisture caught between the low and the high that is straddling
the Arizona/New Mexico state line. This moisture, plus modest low
level moisture from the south, will help generate isolated
thunderstorms for the mountains of the Gila Region and the
Sacramento Mountains this afternoon and evening. In addition
isolated thunderstorms will occur over the lowlands west of the
Continental divide closer to the Arizona state line where moisture
is more plentiful. Flooding concerns away from burn scars remains
low. Afternoon temperatures will again be 6 to 10 degrees above
normal this afternoon. The area is expected to remain below the
100 degree mark. This pattern will largely repeat on Thursday
afternoon and evening.
For Friday and the weekend the large Pacific northwest low will
gradually drift eastward. South to southwest flow ahead of the
system will continue pull additional moisture up over the area
shift the deeper part of the plume more over New Mexico. The
additional moisture will increase chances for showers and
thunderstorms each day. Periods of moderate to briefly heavy
rainfall will occur with some localized flooding potential. In
this dynamic environment with speed and directional shear in the
wind profile, some of the storms may become strong and near severe
levels, capable of producing some larger hail. The potential
strength of these storms remain uncertain at this time. In
addition to the increased moisture, day time temperatures will be
on a cooling trend toward seasonal averages by Monday.
The weather pattern for Tuesday and the rest of next week is more
uncertain with a lack of consensus among the long range model
ensembles. There will continue to be at least a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms as transitory low pressure systems move
across the area as part of the westerly flow pattern. Temperatures
will remain seasonal through the end of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1020 AM MDT Wed Sep 10 2025
VFR conditions expected through the period with isolated showers
and thunderstorms over the higher mountains and areas west of
KDMN. Skies will become FEW- SCT at 10-15kft this afternoon and
early evening, becoming clear by 06Z. Winds south southeast at 5
to 10 knots becoming light and variable after 06Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 219 PM MDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Fire weather concerns are low fire danger. Mostly dry weather
over the lowlands through Thursday, with isolated showers and
storms over the Sacs/Gila Mtns and west of the Divide as high
moisture slowly moves in from the south and west. Storms will
occur area wide Friday through next Monday as Min RH values
gradually trend up through the end of the work week and into the
week. Temperatures will remain above average today and tomorrow
with a gradual decrease back to around average by the weekend.
Winds will remain light to low-end breezy each day.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  72  96  72  95 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            60  90  60  88 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               65  92  65  91 /  10   0   0  10
Alamogordo               66  93  65  92 /  10   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               49  71  48  69 /  10   0   0  10
Truth or Consequences    65  91  65  88 /  10   0  10  10
Silver City              60  85  60  83 /  10  10  20  40
Deming                   65  95  65  92 /  10   0  10  20
Lordsburg                65  92  65  89 /  20  20  20  30
West El Paso Metro       71  94  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                63  93  62  92 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             68  95  68  94 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               63  87  62  86 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   68  94  68  94 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             67  92  68  92 /   0   0   0  10
White Sands HQ           68  92  67  92 /   0   0   0  10
Jornada Range            65  92  65  91 /   0   0   0  10
Hatch                    65  95  65  93 /  10   0  10  10
Columbus                 66  95  66  93 /  10   0  10  10
Orogrande                64  91  63  91 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  53  81  52  80 /  10   0   0  10
Mescalero                54  82  53  81 /  10   0   0  10
Timberon                 52  79  51  78 /  10   0   0   0
Winston                  55  83  55  81 /  10  10  10  20
Hillsboro                62  91  61  89 /  10   0  10  20
Spaceport                64  91  62  89 /   0   0  10  10
Lake Roberts             56  86  56  83 /  10  10  20  40
Hurley                   61  88  61  86 /  10  10  10  30
Cliff                    63  92  64  90 /  20  20  20  30
Mule Creek               60  87  60  85 /  20  20  20  30
Faywood                  63  87  62  86 /  10  10  10  30
Animas                   65  92  65  90 /  20  20  20  40
Hachita                  63  91  64  88 /  10  10  10  30
Antelope Wells           63  91  63  89 /  10  20  20  30
Cloverdale               62  85  62  84 /  20  20  20  40
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...04-Lundeen

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion