Vigo Park, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

669
FXUS64 KLUB 022312
AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
612 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 610 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
- Dry and unseasonably warm weather will continue through the
   weekend.
- A pattern change is possible during the early to middle portion
   of next week which may bring cooler weather and increased rain
   chances.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Large-scale mid/upper level ridging remains in place over the south-
central CONUS resulting in a continuation of dry and very warm
weather across West Texas. Today and Friday will be the warmest days
of the next several with highs easily reaching into the low to mid
90s today and upper 80s to low 90s Friday. A bit of moisture still
remains trapped beneath the ridge, so we will once again see an
increase in cumulus cloud cover with peak heating this afternoon and
again Friday. An isolated high-based shower may briefly develop
especially over the TX Panhandle either afternoon, but with chances
for measurable rain still near zero given the dry subcloud layer
which will remain in place. Despite temperatures being about 10 to
15 degrees above normal, highs will remain safely below record
levels today and Friday. Tonight, expect another mild overnight
period with mainly clear skies.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
This weekend, the upper ridge responsible for our recent stretch of
very warm weather will deamplify in response to deepening mid/upper
level troughing initially centered over the Great Basin.
Southwesterly flow aloft will consequently increase, resulting in
a couple of relatively breezy days on Saturday and Sunday as lee
surface troughing deepens east of the Rockies. Midlevel height
decreases should bring a slight reduction in temperatures, but
highs over the weekend are still expected to be about 5 to 10
degrees above normal with dry conditions continuing area-wide.
Next week, model consensus suggests that southwest flow aloft will
continue over our area with broad troughing set to persist over
the western CONUS as weak ridging builds over the Gulf coast.
Although the beginning of the week is likely to still be dry and
relatively warm, most models continue to push a cold front
southward through the plains states midweek in response to a
series of shortwaves over the midwest. The exact timing of this
front and how far south it makes it are uncertain, but ensemble
consensus indicates that a period of cooler weather with chances
for showers is possible during the middle to late portion of next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Continued VFR with light southerly winds.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...93

NWS LUB Office Area Forecast Discussion