Valley Head, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

669
FXUS64 KHUN 271634
AFDHUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1134 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1134 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
A cutoff mid/upper-level low (initially positioned across
northeast AL/northwest GA) will weaken and open into a trough as
it lifts northeastward into western portions of NC/VA today, with
further degeneration expected to occur across the same
geographical region overnight. North-northwest flow aloft of 15-25
knots in the wake of this feature will advect a dry mid/upper-
level airmass across the TN Valley today, with this trend
continuing overnight even as flow subsides into the 10-20 knot
range.
In the low-levels, our forecast area will remain within a light
northerly flow regime today, between a weak anticyclone situated
over the Ozarks and a surface trough extending from the
northeastern Gulf into the southeastern Atlantic Coast. A more
subtle confluence axis (extending from east-central AL/west-
central GA northward into eastern KY and separating dewpoints in
the u50s-l60s to it west from dewpoints in the m-u 60s to its
east) will serve as an initiating mechanism for convection over
the course of the day, with the highest spatial coverage of
showers and storms expected to occur across eastern TN/western NC
and adjacent portions of northern GA where deep-layer lift will be
enhanced by the ejecting mid-level trough. That said, we will
leave a low (10-20%) POP intact for northeast AL and our eastern
zones in southern Middle TN to account for the proximity of the
confluence axis to our east and potential development of a few
weak convective cells in response to orographic ascent. Highs will
range from the m-u 70s in elevated terrain to the l-m 80s in the
valley.
Any shower activity impacting our forecast area late this
afternoon will dissipate rather quickly between 0-1Z, with dry
conditions expected overnight. The local pressure gradient will
begin to contract as a secondary high (currently across the
northern Plains) phases with the ridge to its southeast, and a
developing area of low pressure begins to lift north-northwestward
into the southern Bahamas. Although northeasterly winds will
remain slightly elevated in this regime, patchy valley fog will
still be possible between 8-14Z Sunday as temps fall into the
u50s-l60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 1134 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Latest short range model data suggests that our region will
remain within a region of weak steering currents aloft on
Sunday/Sunday night, to the southwest of decaying mid-level trough
across western portions of NC/VA. In the low-levels, light-
moderate northeast flow will persist, and although dry conditions
are expected for the majority of the forecast area, a few low-
topped showers may develop in the higher terrain to our northeast
tomorrow afternoon, which could subsequently travel southwestward
into portions of northeast AL late Sunday afternoon or early
Sunday evening. Afternoon temperatures will increase a couple of
degrees over values from today/tonight, with highs in the mid 80s
for much of the valley, and lows Monday morning in the u50s-l60s.
Present indications are that the remnant mid-level vorticity lobe
(from the trough to our northeast) will begin to retrograde
westward across the southern Appalachians on Sunday night in the
flow around a building 500-mb high across IL/IN/OH. Although the
presence of this feature may support a few afternoon showers or
thunderstorms on Monday, we will keep POPs low at this point
(10-20%). Highs on Monday will be similar to values from Sunday,
with an increase in dewpoints supporting warmer lows in the l-m
60s Tuesday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 1028 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Low rainfall chances (20% or less) return mid week primarily in
NE AL and portions of southern middle TN as increased moisture
returns to the area and sfc high pressure continues northeastward.
Confidence in shower/thunderstorm development is low due to high
model disagreement in how the tropical systems to our east play
out and how that influences the upper level pattern. Therefore,
continued to stick with blended guidance of a mostly dry pattern.
However, anyone with interests in outdoor plans mid next week is
encouraged to check back in for updates as the forecast may
change. Highs at the beginning of the week are forecast to be in
the upper 70s to low 80s; however, a gradual cool down is
expected. Highs by the end of the week should remain in the 70s
and overnight lows are forecast to be in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 542 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
VFR conditions will be the predominant flight category at each
terminal through the period with light winds and a mostly clear
sky.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...70/DD
LONG TERM...HC
AVIATION...AMP

NWS HUN Office Area Forecast Discussion