352 FXUS64 KMAF 110659 AFDMAFArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 159 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 157 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
- Low to moderate (20%-40%) probability of showers/storms over western higher terrain of W TX into SE NM plains beginning this weekend and continuing into next week.
- Slight cooling trend in temperatures this weekend into next week due to increasing cloud cover and shower/storm chances.
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.SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday afternoon) Issued at 157 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
An upper level ridge continues to sit over the Great Plains and will continue to bring above normal heat for both today and Friday. Highs will reach into the low to mid 90s for most with upper 80s in the higher terrain. Compared to today, Friday will feature temperatures about a degree or two lower, but overall conditions will be the same. For tonight, lows dip into the 60s once again with the mountains settling into the 50s. Rain chances will remain near zero areawide for the short term.
-Stickney
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.LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 157 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Heading into Saturday, the pattern begins to shift as the ridge that has brought the warmth for this week will be pushed to the east as a deep trough moves into the Western US. Temperatures to end the week and into this weekend will gradually drop to near normal with most in the upper 80s to low 90s. Rain chances make a return as the southern edge of the upper trough skims across the northern and western peripheries of the CWA. Low(20-40%) rain chances will be seen through the weekend for areas west of Midland/Odessa with less than 20% chances to the east as the trough rolls through the Rockies and into the Plains. By Monday, the trough departs to the northeast and rain chances fall back to under 10% and remain that low into the middle of next week. Temperatures look to sit around normal near 90F during the day and 60s overnight.
-Stickney
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.AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
VFR conditions with light to modest southeast winds continue the next 24 hours.
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 94 66 92 68 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 93 64 92 67 / 0 0 0 10 Dryden 92 68 91 70 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 92 66 91 67 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 85 62 84 64 / 0 0 0 10 Hobbs 90 61 88 65 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 86 56 85 59 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 93 66 92 69 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 92 66 90 69 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 93 65 91 68 / 0 0 0 0
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.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. &&
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SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...10
NWS MAF Office Area Forecast Discussion