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Uncle Sam, Louisiana Weather Forecast Discussion

463
FXUS64 KLIX 021121 AAA
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 621 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

...NEW AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1214 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

- Rain and storm chances slowly increase today and Friday with better chances this weekend.

- Winds and seas will increase today through this weekend leading to Small Craft Advisory conditions.

- Minor coastal flooding along east facing shores of southeast LA, including portions of the tidal lakes, and Hancock, MS county expected Friday and into the weekend.

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.SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 1214 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Hurricane Imelda is well off the Atlantic Coast near Bermuda, and will likely become extratropical during the morning. Troughing to the west of Imelda extended into southern Alabama, while ridging extended from the central Great Lakes into Texas. A shortwave was moving through the northern Plains States.

The weak troughing to the west of Imelda will gradually orient east- west across the northern Gulf Coast today and Friday. It doesn`t appear that there will be a well defined surface low pressure center, but there will be a mid-level circulation. With strong high pressure centered over New England, this will produce a tighter pressure gradient, with somewhat stronger easterly winds. This will be especially true offshore, where easterly winds will increase to 20 knots by midday and continue through Friday. This will gradually pile up water on east facing shorelines that could begin to produce minor coastal flooding issues during the high tide cycle toward sunrise Friday and again late Friday night. Current indications are that tidal flooding of 1 to 2 feet above normally dry ground could occur in areas prone to coastal flooding. A Coastal Flood Advisory may be issued later today.

Precipitable water values could be approaching the 75th percentile south of Interstate 10 over the next 36 hours, but are likely to be between the 25th and 50th percentile across the northwest half of the area. With the troughing in place, that should allow the development of scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two from about the Interstate 10 corridor southward as early as this afternoon, but moreso late tonight and Friday. Any heavy rain through Friday is expected to remain offshore.

High temperatures today probably won`t be much different than Wednesday afternoon, upper 80s to near 90 in most areas. More mid and high level clouds, as well as some precipitation, will likely hold highs in the lower and middle 80s from the Interstate 10 corridor southward, and upper 80s across northwest portions of the area on Friday.

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.LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1214 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

The upper troughing looks to remain in place near the coast through at least the weekend. There may be a bit more of a weak surface low pressure reflection over the Gulf this weekend, before it moves west of the area by Monday. Moisture levels are expected to remain above normal (median is about 1.4 inches) south of the Interstate corridor through the weekend, and could overspread the entire area for a period Saturday night and Sunday. Precipitable water values could peak out around 2 inches on Sunday, around the 90th percentile. If there is a favored day for heavy rain, it would probably be Sunday, with rain chances in the 50 to 70 percent range for most of the area. Some of that could linger into Monday. Cumulatively, some areas south of a Gulfport-New Orleans-Houma line could see 2-4 inches of rain or more through Monday. Most of that area would be able to tolerate that much, assuming it doesn`t fall in a short time over an urban area. And in some areas, the rain would be welcome, as September was rather dry with isolated exceptions.

The column begins to dry out on Monday as weak mid level ridging builds in along the northern Gulf Coast. May not dry out enough to completely remove precipitation from the forecast, but at least enough to carry lower rain chances even south of the Interstate corridor Tuesday and Wednesday.

The coastal flood threat could continue through Saturday into Sunday morning`s high tide cycle before winds diminish enough to reduce the threat. Additionally, the astronomical tide ranges will be diminishing beginning Saturday.

High temperatures over the weekend, while being somewhat cooler than the last few days, will still be near to above normal (normal 82- 86F). As the column dries out early next week, highs could bump back up to the upper 80s to around 90. The moist airmass will hold overnight lows a bit above normal though.

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.AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 621 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

VFR mostly through the cycle. There will be convective chances for the immediate coastal terminals this afternoon and perhaps late tonight. Covered this potential with PROBs for now with a lower VIS/CIG if thunderstorms actually do develop. Otherwise, for the coastal terminals easterly surface winds will become gusty as the low level flow strengthens later today. (Frye)

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.MARINE... Issued at 1214 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

A low pressure system in the northern Gulf will lead to rougher conditions across the coastal waters for the next few days. The pressure gradient will increase over the coastal waters, and this will allow for an easterly wind to increase to around 20 knots this afternoon. These winds will persist through Sunday as strong high pressure remains over New England and weak low pressure drifts westward across the Gulf. A fairly long fetch across the eastern Gulf will allow produce a decent swell, and this will combine with the wind waves to produce higher seas of up to 9 feet over the open Gulf waters. The gradient should weaken by the end of the weekend, with high pressure building in early next week. Due to the rough conditions expected, the Small Craft Advisory has been expanded to include all of the open Gulf waters, as well as the sounds and Lake Borgne through Saturday evening. The advisory may need extended beyond Saturday evening in later forecasts. Lakes Pontchartrain and Maurepas will probably need Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines overnight into Friday, and eventually into the weekend.

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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 88 64 85 64 / 10 0 0 0 BTR 90 67 87 67 / 10 0 10 0 ASD 88 64 84 65 / 20 20 20 10 MSY 89 73 85 72 / 20 20 30 20 GPT 86 67 85 68 / 30 20 20 10 PQL 87 64 84 65 / 30 10 10 10

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.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to midnight CDT Saturday night for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575- 577.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to midnight CDT Saturday night for GMZ534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

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SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...RDF MARINE...RW

NWS LIX Office Area Forecast Discussion

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