Twin Valley, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

187
FXUS63 KFGF 070839
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
339 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Frost is expected this morning across much of the region.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
...Synopsis...
A large scale rough remains in place from Hudson Bay and south
towards the Ohio River Valley with much drier/northerly flow in
place over the Northern Plains. The breakdown of this trough
tonight into Monday will result in a shift to a westerly split-
flow and a baroclinic zone near our southern CWA may act as a
focus for diurnal showers/thunderstorms as weaker mid level
waves pass to the south. Guidance continues to show some
instability pooling near this feature, but with limited lift,
marginal mid level lapse rates, and weak shear at most a few
stronger storms may develop just near our southeast (small
hail/lightning). Ridging then builds into our region mid week,
followed by some form of weak southwest flow between the ridge
and a cutoff mid level low to the west late week into the
weekend. This does allow for increasing moisture advection in
the mid-upper levels, and daily shower/thunderstorm chances.
However, instability/shear remain marginal, and any there
remains higher spread in smaller scale features/details lowering
confidence in evolution/coverage/impacts through the weekend.
Each day may support a few diurnal strong thunderstorms, but as
has been the case the probability for severe thunderstorms
remains low as ECMWF EFI and machine learning system do not
highlight any period for potential severe risk.
...Frost this morning...
Temperatures have varied, but colder 2m Temps in the 32-36F
range have been reported within the areas of the Frost Advisory,
and clear skies/calm winds support frost formation on surfaces.
By sunrise a few locations could drop below 32 under good
radiational cooling conditions (clear skies calm winds). BL Tds
for most areas are generally in the 33-39 range, so the
potential for a widespread freeze is low this morning. Forecast
is on track and the Frost Advisory remains in place through 8 AM
CDT. Lower temperatures may linger a bit beyond 8 AM before
daytime heating kicks in, but the trend should be there (temps
recovering), so I opted not to extend the advisory in time.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
VFR conditions will persist for the TAF period. Light and
variable winds will become southwesterly after sunrise but
should generally remain sustained between 7 and 12 knots, with
15 knots sustained the reasonable worst case scenario. Winds
will become light and variable once again after sunset.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-027>029.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...Perroux

NWS FGF Office Area Forecast Discussion