Tuckertown, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

761
FXUS62 KGSP 261043
AFDGSP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
643 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A moist cold front will track across the area today before stalling
along the Carolina Coast this weekend, keeping unsettled weather
around. A tropical system may impact the area early next week but
this remains uncertain at this time. Temperatures near normal today
drop slightly this weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 645 AM EDT Friday: Patches of light rain were noted on
radar across the area east of the Blue Ridge at daybreak, some
left over from thunderstorms in the pre-dawn hours. Most of this
remnant light rain will slowly rain itself out across the fcst
area over the next hour or two, but additional showers or maybe
even a thunderstorm could develop in northeast GA and the Upstate
where we retain 500 J/kg of sfc-based CAPE, which should be enough
to fuel scattered showers. Weak upper divergence on the east side
of the jet axis running along the west side of the mtns will help
with the forcing. In places that don`t get any shower activity,
areas of fog will develop, some of which could be locally dense. Low
temps will be seasonally warm and near record high minimums.
Over the next 24 hours, a positively-tilted mid/upper trof is
expected to pinch off a closed upper low over the TN Valley
region as a short wave lifts out to the northeast across
the nrn Mid-Atlantic. This upper low will have repercussions
through the weekend and into the middle part of next week as
you will see. In the meantime, the upper low will drag a warm
conveyor belt of moisture northeastward from the Gulf and over the
Carolinas. Periodic bits of upper divergence and waves of mid-level
DPVA will provide the forcing for occasional showers and a few
thunderstorms. Our severe weather chances are low, or at least
worse than yesterday, owing to poor lapse rates and modest buoyancy
this afternoon. The heavy rain potential also appears modest, as
the precipitable water fcst tops out around the 90th percentile,
which is high, but not overly scary. It would take some training
of cells, such as they are, to get us close to rainfall that would
increase the flash flood threat. Problem is, the 00Z HREF 6 hr
and 3 hr PMMs showed the potential for just that in some upslope
areas near the Escarpment in NC this evening, so some flash flood
potential will not be ruled out. No watches are contemplated at
this time. The extensive cloud cover and occasional showers will
keep high temps closer to climo than they have been for the past
several days, and low temps running 5-10 degrees above normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1:35 AM EDT Friday: The short-term forecast picks up at 12z on
Saturday with a southern-stream upper trof moving over the deep south.
As the weekend wears on, this trof is expected to gradually lift north-
ward and get cut-off from the mean flow. By the end of the period early
Monday, whatever is left of this low will get absorbed by broad upper
ridging that spreads over the eastern CONUS. At the sfc, what`s left
of a lingering frontal boundary will still be over the Carolina Coast
along with a fairly broad area of deeper moisture. We can expect numer-
ous to widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms on Saturday as
the deeper moisture lingers over our area along with support from the
upper trof/low mentioned above. Isolated heavy rainfall will be the main
potential hazard, as any severe storms appear unlikely. Nonetheless, a
few stronger storms may be possible. On Sunday, some degree of mid-lvl
drying is expected and the better upper forcing weakens and shifts NE,
yet plenty of low-lvl moisture lingers over our area. Thus, we can ex-
pect convective coverage to be more sct for most of our fcst area, with
more isolated coverage over the SW Upstate and NE GA. Brief, heavy rain-
fall remains possible, along with a few stronger storms. High temps will
be near normal both days with lows about a category above normal each day.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1:15 AM EDT Friday: The extended fcst picks up at 12z on Monday
with multiple tropical systems approaching the SE CONUS. Although model
guidance continues to vary a fair amount from run to run, it`s looking
more likely that the western-most system, which is currently just east
of Cuba and only a tropical disturbance, will become a tropical cyclone
over the weekend. This system will then track NNW with a decent chance
that it will make landfall over the Carolinas sometime Monday or Tues.
It`s still too early to estimate how strong this system will be as it
approaches the SE Coast and makes landfall, but it will need to be
watched closely over the next few days. The other system, Tropical
Storm Humberto, is expected to remain well offshore early next week
and then turn NE and move into the north Atlantic towards the end of
the period. If the above scenario does materialize, the main hazards
for our area will likely be excessive rainfall and gusty winds during
the first part of the week. It`s still too early to accurately predict
how much rainfall we will receive and/or how strong our winds will be,
thus this system will need to be watched closely over the next few days.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Starting out with a mixed bag of flight
restrictions with plenty of low level moisture along/SE of a wavy
frontal boundary. The plan is for variable ceilings and vis thru
mid-morning, in other words, a moving target. After mid-morning,
the sky should become bkn MVFR for a few hours before scattering
out/lifting to VFR around midday. Thereafter, another round of
forcing will bring occasional showers and a few storms to all
terminals. This was handled with a PROB30 for the late afternoon,
followed by a prevailing shower restriction based on the trends
in the HRRR. Wind should stay SW to WSW away from storms. More
restrictions can be expected Friday night, but details were glossed
over at this time.
Outlook: Shower and thunderstorm chances, as well as associated
restrictions, continue for all terminals into the weekend thanks to
a stalled cold front along the Carolina coast. Fog and low stratus
are possible each morning, mainly in the mountain valleys but thick
cloud cover may limit this potential. Tropical system remnants could
bring widespread restrictions and rain to at least a part of the
area early next week, but confidence remains very low at this time.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...PM

NWS GSP Office Area Forecast Discussion