Troy, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

785
FXUS61 KAKQ 101920
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
320 PM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain centered over Atlantic Canada today,
as low pressure off the Carolina coast slowly lifts northeast
off the mid Atlantic coast through tonight, bringing cool and
damp weather to the region. The next high pressure system builds
southeast into Quebec late Thursday through Friday, and pushes
off to Atlantic Canada on Saturday, gradually bringing drier
air into the local area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 310 PM EDT Wednesday...
Key Messages:
- Cloudy and cool weather conditions prevail through the afternoon
and evening.
- Light rain and drizzle linger overnight into early Thursday,
mainly south.
Afternoon weather analysis shows weak southwest flow aloft as a
trough is centered over the northern Ohio River Valley and Great
Lakes region. At the surface, high pressure continues to sit over
New England. While of the coast, a weak coastal low has developed
leading to breezy conditions along the coastline. Cloud cover
continues to remain persistent as an early season CAD has set up
across the area. This has lead to dreary weather across the entire
CWA with light rain showers and much cooler temperatures. So far
throughout the day temperatures have struggled to warm and remain in
the upper 60s to low 70s. Through the evening additional showers are
expected across the area as the low wraps around additional
moisture. CAMs continue to hint on the bet chance of showers being
between the RIC metro area and Tide water. However, not expecting
wide spread showers and have capped pops between 25 to 30%.
Temperatures should cool down a tad tonight as some clearing is
expected across the west this evening. Temperatures tonight will be
in the upper 50s to lower 60s west of I-95 and middle 60s across
the east. In addition to the clearing to the west, there is the
potential of some patchy fog developing across the NW tomorrow
morning where clearing may occur earlier this afternoon and evening.
Better weather conditions are expected tomorrow as high pressure
moves over Quebec ushering in drier air and the coastal low
continues to push offshore. Before the drier air fully enters the
area some lingering showers are possible across the east through Mi-
morning. By the late morning and afternoon weather conditions will
improve and skies will clear. This will allow for temperatures to
warm in the middle to lower 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 310 PM EDT Wednesday...
Key Messages:
- Dry and seasonable temperatures are expected Friday and Saturday.
The upper level trough will continue to remain over the area with a
weak ridge building across the central United States. High pressure
at the surface will continue to strengthen over NE canada and
Northern New England. This will allow for persistent NE flow to
continue at the surface and will lead to SCT-BKN cloud cover for
both Friday and Saturday. Both Friday and Saturdays weather
conditions will be identical in nature with mostly clear to partly
cloudy sky cover. No rain is expected as high pressure remains in
control ushering drier air. Temperatures will be back near
seasonable with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and low
temperatures in the middle to upper 50s inland and lower 60s along
the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 310 PM EDT Wednesday...
Key Messages:
- Seasonable temperatures with dry weather conditions are expected
to last through the weekend and into early next week.
High pressure will continue to remain in control through the end of
the weekend and into early next week. This will continue to lead to
optimal weather conditions Sunday and Monday. Dry weather will
prevail with highs both Sunday and Monday being in the lower to
potentially even middle 80s in some isolated locations. Potentially
by late Monday/early Tuesday there is a potential of a backdoor cold
front moving across the area. This will allow for additional cooler
weather conditions. With the limited moisture ahead of the front not
expecting much in terms of precipitation associated with this
frontal passage.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Wednesday...
IFR conditions prevail for all main terminals this afternoon.
Mainly light showers and areas of drizzle are expected to
persist this afternoon and evening with IFR CIGs and MVFR to
occasional IFR VSBYs expected. Winds remain out of the N between
10 to 15 kt with some gusts nearing 20 kt. The area of low
pressure will slowly pull NE away from the area through tonight,
but with a weak pressure gradient since high pressure will be
slow to build in from Canada, a deteriorating conditions once
again tonight into early Thursday morning.
Outlook: Improving conditions are expected later Thursday with
mainly dry WX and VFR for all terminals expected through the
weekend.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 310 PM EDT Wednesday...
Key Messages:
- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect across a majority of the
local waters through this evening and into tonight.
- Another round of SCAs is possible later Friday into Saturday
across the southern coastal waters due to building seas.
- There is a high risk of rip currents through tomorrow at all area
beaches.
This afternoon, ~1027 mb surface high pressure remains near Atlantic
Canada and extends south into the local area. Meanwhile, ~1013 mb
low pressure is centered off the Mid Atlantic coast. Winds remain
elevated out of the N to NNE, but have diminished compared to
earlier and generally range from 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 25
knots. Seas are running around 4 to 6 feet (locally up to 7 feet out
20 nm) and waves in the Bay 3 to 4 feet (up to 5 feet at the mouth).
Small Craft Advisories have been cancelled for the upper James,
York, and Rappahannock Rivers. SCAs remain in effect for the
Chesapeake Bay this through this evening/into tonight, and for the
coastal waters through much of tomorrow due to lingering 5+ feet
seas.
Winds will continue to diminish this evening into tonight, becoming
N 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. High pressure builds
across the region tomorrow into Friday, allowing for sub-SCA winds
and gradually diminishing seas. Another coastal low moves well
offshore Friday into the weekend, but not expecting SCA winds at
this time with local wind probs continuing to decrease. However, it
does still appear that seas will become elevated to 4 to 6 feet
across the southern coastal waters later Friday into this weekend
and another round of SCAs will likely be needed. High
pressure/benign conditions return later this weekend into early next
week.
Rip Currents: A High Risk for rip currents continues across all area
beaches through this evening given 4-5 ft waves, 8 second periods,
and a strong longshore current. A High Risk for rip currents is also
expected for tomorrow with similar conditions compared to today.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 315 PM EDT Wednesday...
Water levels remain elevated with prolonged onshore flow through the
end of the week, though departures may slowly drop off a bit later
tonight/early Thursday. Will note that additional nuisance to minor
coastal flooding is likely for the Thursday afternoon high tide for
most coastal locations, thus went ahead and extended the Coastal
Flood Advisories ~24 hours to encompass this threat. It should also
be noted that tonight`s high tide cycle will be lower than previous
high tides, but many locations will still approach minor flood
stages. Finally, added the bayside of the Maryland Eastern Shore to
the advisories, with minor flooding (especially at Bishops Head MD)
appearing increasingly likely over the next few cycles.
Additional nuisance to minor flooding remains possible primarily
with the afternoon high tides Friday and Saturday.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for MDZ021>023.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ102.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for VAZ075>078-
     085-086-521-522.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for VAZ095-097-
     098-525.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Thursday for VAZ082>084-
     089-090-093-096-099-100-518-520-523-524.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ630-
     631-638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ632.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652-
     654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ656.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HET/LKB
NEAR TERM...HET
SHORT TERM...HET/LKB
LONG TERM...HET/LKB
AVIATION...HET/LKB
MARINE...AJB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion