Trevat, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

300
FXUS64 KHGX 041909
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
209 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1116 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
- Rising moisture will reduced fire weather potential through the
  weekend, though continue to use caution when working with open
  flames/equipment that can cause sparks, especially in dry spots.
- A deep layer of moisture will result in increasing rain chances
  this weekend. Highest chances reside along the coast in
  association with the sea breeze.
- Small craft will need to exercise caution into the weekend in
  the bays due to increased winds and seas. A Small Craft Advisory
  has been issued for the Gulf waters through Sunday morning due
  to expected frequent wind gusts up to 25kt and seas up to 6-8ft
  possible.
- Beachgoers should also be aware that there will likely be an
  increased risk of rip currents this weekend. Increasing swells
  and winds may lead to minor coastal flooding at times of high
  tide.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 129 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
No significant chances to the forecast is expected, and the
forecast will largely be persistence through at least the first
half of the work week. Easterly flow ushering in slightly higher
moisture will help trigger afternoon showers south of I-10 (with
the greatest chances occurring offshore). A building ridge of high
pressure overhead will end up limiting shower and thunderstorms
development for much of the region next week, but the increase in
moisture and daytime heating will likely allow for at least an
isolated afternoon shower or storm along the coast. Afternoon
high temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s (with a few
spots west of Katy potentially reaching the mid-90s) and overnight
lows generally in the upper 60s to mid-70s.
The persistent, moderate onshore flow will lead to a couple of
hazards along area beaches through tomorrow. A Rip Current
Statement is in effect through Sunday night as there is a high
risk of strong rip currents. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been
issued through Sunday morning for the Barrier Islands as water
levels climb to around 3.6-4.0ft above Mean Low Low Water (MLLW).
Here are a few impacts we have seen during previous minor coastal
flooding events with similar conditions:
 - When water levels reach 3.7ft above MLLW, water may begin to reach
   Highway 87 at Highway 124 on Bolivar Peninsula, and on Beach
   Drive near Blue Water Highway in Surfside.
 - At 4.0ft above MLLW, minor low lying streets may begin on the
   West End of Galveston, Highway 124 between High Island and
   FM-1985 may begin to flood, and the lowest streets in Jamaica
   Beach may be begin to flood.
The coastal flood advisory may be extended into Sunday afternoon
if tides are higher than expected, but weakening onshore winds
will allow for lower water levels Sunday night into Monday.
Fowler
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 609 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
Lots of lines, but with VFR across the area and expected to stay
that way, this is due mainly to having a wide range of wind
directions thanks to the land/seabreeze circulation. But, in
general looking for east-ish winds peaking this afternoon at 5-10
kts inland and 10-15 kts for IAH coastward. Isolated SHRA/TSRA
expected again, but generally not high enough for a PROB30 mention
yet except for pre-dawn coastal showers for GLS. Will have to
trust future shifts to make quick changes should it become more
apparent a terminal will get their number drawn for rain.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 129 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
The Small Craft Advisory has been extended for the Gulf waters
into early Sunday morning due to easterly winds of 15-20kt and
frequent gusts to 25kt and seas 4-6ft with occasional seas to
6-8ft. Small craft may need to continue to exercise caution
through the remainder of Sunday as the wave heights may be slow to
decrease. The persistent, moderate onshore flow has led to
increased water levels and risk of rip currents. A Coastal Flood
Advisory is in effect through Sunday morning with tides running
around 3.6-4.0ft above MLLW.
Light easterly to southeasterly winds will persist through much
of next week with low seas. There will be a daily risk of
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Fowler
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Active burn bans in SE Texas: Houston, Madison, Colorado, and
Wharton counties.
Improving moisture levels are anticipated going into the weekend,
with afternoon RH values ranging from 33-50 percent inland.
Observed 10 hour fuel moisture shows a few pockets below the 25th
percentile, forecasted to rise through the weekend. On the whole,
the fire weather danger should be mitigated by these conditions,
though caution should still be exercised when handling open flames
in any areas with particularly dry vegetation. Be mindful when
handling equipment that could create unintended sparks (i.e. loose
chains). Expect further improvement in conditions this weekend
into next week.
Adams/03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  66  91  69  91 /   0  10  10  30
Houston (IAH)  71  90  74  90 /   0  10  20  40
Galveston (GLS)  76  84  77  86 /  30  30  30  30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ436>439.
High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Sunday morning for
     GMZ330-335.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ350-355-370-
     375.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Fowler
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Fowler

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion