Trenton, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

034
FXUS62 KCAE 071046
AFDCAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
646 AM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through the region today bringing cooler and
drier air to the north and west and a chance of showers and
thunderstorms to the south and east. Mainly dry conditions are
expected during the upcoming work week, with below normal
temperatures to start, gradually warming as the week goes on.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):
- Front moving through with strong temperature gradient in
  place, cooler in the north, warmer in the south.
- Scattered showers and storms expected along the front with
  highest chances south of I-20.
Cold front is moving through the forecast area this morning.
Deep layer moisture remains relatively high, above 1.5 inches
across the entire area and is expected to remain high ahead of
the front with drier air moving in aloft behind it. Shower and
thunderstorm coverage today will be highly dependent on the
exact progression of the front with destabilization, and as a
result highest chance for showers and storms, expected this
afternoon. Highest potential for sbCAPE to exceed 1000 J/kg will
be south of I-20 where greater than 50 percent of members favor
this moderate destabilization. As a result, highest convective
coverage expected in the southeastern portion of the forecast
area. Precipitation may be moderate to potentially heavy at
times, especially where the front meets the sea breeze with
hires guidance indicating this will be possible around the I-95
corridor and areas east. Significant uncertainty in the
temperature forecast for today due to the cold front. A tight
temperature gradient will be in place across the area today with
the far northwestern portion of the forecast area struggling to
reach 80 and the southeastern portion of the area approaching
90. Convection will diminish tonight with drier air continuing
to move in overnight. Lows tonight in the low to mid 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Cool and dry conditions for much of the region to start the new
work week. Winds may be breezy at times due to a tight pressure
gradient.
Weak upper troughing will dominate the region during the period.
This combined with surface flow out of the northeast around high
pressure to our north will result in mainly dry conditions and
temperatures below seasonal values. Moisture will be confined to the
coast, though a shower or two cannot be ruled out across the Eastern
Midlands, mainly along and east of I-95. Winds may be breezy at
times due to a tight pressure gradient between the aforementioned
high pressure to our north and an inverted trough off the coast.
Daytime temperatures should be in the upper 70s to lower 80s both
days with overnight lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key message(s):
- Continued dry with temperatures warming to near normal values to
close out the work week.
Strong high pressure and continued weak troughing aloft maintain a
northeasterly flow through much of the extended. Moisture is shunted
out of the region due to a reinforcing trough with PWATs at or below
an inch for much of the period. Despite troughing aloft, a warming
trend is expected, with temperatures returning to near normal values
on Thursday and Friday. Long range guidance suggest that below
normal height anomalies will develop next weekend resulting in lower
temperatures once again though the dry weather continues.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions in place with chance of showers and storms this
afternoon into evening.
Expect VFR conditions at all terminals as a cold front moves
through the area. This afternoon showers and storms will develop
near the front and while the coverage is uncertain, have
included a prob30 group for tsra at all the terminals for the
potential. As the front continues to move east, lingering low
level moisture tonight will lead to restrictions developing and
increasing northeast winds. Highest confidence in ceiling
restrictions at OGB.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A cooler and drier air mass will
settle over the region early next week behind the front.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.
&&
$$

NWS CAE Office Area Forecast Discussion