Tomball, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

783
FXUS64 KHGX 231204
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
704 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms today. Locally heavier rain
  possible at the coast.
- A frontal boundary will bring a higher chance of more widespread
  shower and thunderstorm coverage on Wednesday. Locally heavy /
  strong thunderstorms are possible.
- Drier air and slightly cooler temperatures prevail into the end
  of the week behind the front.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
For today`s outlook, I`m going with a perstence-ish forecast,
emphasis on the `ish`. Much like recent days, I suspect the radar
to be a little more active than the guidance suggests. But
mid/upper ridging appears a little less stout for today. In
addition, a surge of very high PWATs (2"+) is pushing into the
coastline this morning. This tells me that rain chances are at
least somewhat higher than yesterday (at least near the coast).
But it also tells me there`s a better chance of locally heavy
rainfall, especially in our coastal counties. We`ll be watching
the radar carefully this morning in case one of these locally
heavy showers / storms decides to drop a quick few inches of
rainfall.
If you don`t receive rain today, perhaps you will finally get your
chance on Wednesday. The LL atmosphere remains PWAT rich as a
deep-layer trough digs southward, providing synoptic lift and
gradually increasing shear. Meanwhile, a cold front pushes
southward, enhancing LL convergence. The setup appears favorable
for scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms. Parameters
are favorable for locally heavy rainfall capable of localized
flooding. In addition, conditions appear conditionally favorable
for a few stronger thunderstorms capable of a damaging wind gust.
So the radar will be worth a watchful eye on Wednesday as well.
For areas near the coast, the rain and thunderstorm threat
continues into Thursday morning before a much drier air mass
sweeps into the region in the front`s wake. Temperatures and
humidity continue to appear lower during the second half of the
week. Perhaps we can muster a few days in the 80s with lows well
down into the 60s. Not bad for late September. Should feel better
compared to the humid 90s we`ve seen of late.
Self
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Today will be a very similar day to yesterday. Isolated to
widely scattered showers have already popped up across the coastal
waters, and this activity will persist through the rest of the
morning. Daytime heating will allow for isolated thunderstorms to
develop through the afternoon for areas along and south of I-10.
As the sun sets, activity is expected to diminish. Generally VFR
conditions will prevail through this evening, but some MVFR cigs
around 1500-2500ft may develop for CLL, UTS, CXO, and possibly
IAH near daybreak Wednesday morning. Winds today will be
predominately from the south-southeast around 7-12kt, decreasing
to light and variable late tonight.
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Moderate south to southeast winds along with scattered showers
and thunderstorms are expected today. On Wednesday, winds will
shift southwest ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will
bring a better chance of more widespread shower and thunderstorm
activity on Wednesday into Thursday morning. A few stronger
thunderstorms capable of gusty winds possible. Winds become more
northerly in the front`s wake on Thursday and Friday. Winds are
expected to be moderate to strong at times, possible warranting
caution flags.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  94  75  90  69 /  20  10  80  50
Houston (IAH)  92  77  93  73 /  50  10  80  70
Galveston (GLS)  89  82  89  76 /  60  10  60  80
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion