Tilden, Wisconsin Weather Forecast Discussion

698
FXUS63 KMPX 181707
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1207 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue through the
  weekend.
- Slow moving storms and high atmospheric moisture content will
  likely lead to areas of heavy rain totals each of the next few
  days.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Scattered showers across western MN grow into widespread
showers farther west across the Dakotas early this morning.
Water vapor imagery highlights several small scale disturbances
within the trough across the northern Plains and a dry slot
attempting to reach southwestern MN. Pwats are expected to drop
today and lapse rates will remain poor, although there will be
some modest, skinny, uncapped CAPE this afternoon. Cannot rule
out some scattered showers and thunderstorms developing during
diurnal peak, but the lack of a trigger should mean another
mostly quiet day.
A more substantive shortwave is expected to rotate north from
the central Plains this evening to MN by Friday morning.
Accompanying it is a recovery of Pwats back to 1.5-1.75 inches.
A moist adiabatic profile and very little or no CAPE will keep
the thunder threat modest, but wind profiles remain favorable
for slow moving or training showers capable of heavy rainfall
totals. Coverage should be better than anything we`ve seen so
far from this system. By Friday, the core of the upper low will
finally begin making progress eastward and should slowly
propagate across MN through Friday night, reaching WI Saturday.
PoPs will be highest east of the system within the warm conveyor
belt. As another trough approaches from the west, it will absorb
the week-long upper low by early Sunday over WI and prolong the
cyclonic flow and scattered shower threat possibly into Monday.
The rest of next week looks mostly dry with seasonable
temperatures, although general troughiness will remain. Another
upper low will dive southeast to the central Plains and mid to
lower Mississippi Valley midweek. It`s possible we will be on
the northern fringe of that system and PoPs may eventually be
introduced, but the better chances for any substantial precip
should remain well to the south.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
An MVFR/IFR stratus deck will lift north/west as the cutoff low
pressure spins over the Dakotas. This low will gradually move
eastward over the TAF period and finally lead to an uptick in
covers for showers this evening/tonight. There is still a
window of -TSRA this evening I`ve addressed by PROB30 given the
uncertainty in coverage. Sites will return to VFR cigs/vis this
afternoon and remain VFR until tonight. MVFR to IFR cigs build
in as the low pressure moves into W MN. This will coincide with
an uptick in -SHRA and MVFR vsbys. Likely MVFR through remainder
of the TAF period. Winds remain SE-erly throughout aob10kts.
KMSP... Biggest change was to push back the thunderstorm PROB30
to 03Z to better line up with the models. There is still
uncertainty if any TS will impact the terminal directly, but
there is a good signal we`ll have TS in the vicinity of KMSP.
Since there is still a fair amount of uncertainty, opted to
maintain a PROB30 as mentioned above. MVFR conditions are
expected to develop by early Friday morning with
-SHRA continuing. Cigs begin to rise after mid-morning but
 remain MVFR.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...Chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind S 5-10 kts.
SUN...Chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
MON...Chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...BPH

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion