Your favorites:

Throckmorton, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

277
FXUS64 KSJT 232241
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 541 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increased chance of showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon into Wednesday. A few of these storms could be strong to severe this afternoon and evening.

- Heavy rainfall on Wednesday morning could result in areas localized flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 115 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

As of 3 PM the frontal boundary was draped just to the northwest of the Big Country. Temperatures ahead of the boundary were in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees. CAMs continue to show isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing along the front by the late afternoon and evening. Cannot rule out a few storms becoming strong to severe given moderate instability and modest deep layer shear. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop overnight as large scale ascent overspreads the region. The severe threat will be lower compared to the afternoon round, but marginally severe wind gusts will be possible. Locally heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding will also be possible with the heavier storms overnight. Scattered showers and storms will linger into the afternoon hours, with the highest PoPs shifting to the southern half of the area. Otherwise, temperatures will be much cooler on Wednesday (70s and 80s) given the extensive cloud cover in place and shower and storms.

&&

.LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 113 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

The cold front that brought rain chances during the day on Wednesday will have moved into south central Texas by Wednesday evening. Some residual lift is expected from the last of a mid-level impulse passing through the region. As a result, a few lingering showers could still occur overnight from the Concho Valley southward, but rainfall amounts should be fairly light.

For Thursday and Friday, quieter weather is in store as surface high pressure will fill in behind the front. A cooler airmass, to the tune of 15-18 deg C at 850mb, should overspread the region both days. This should translate to high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s which is near normal for this time of year. By late Friday, the surface high will shift eastward and allow southerly return flow to set up for this weekend and temperatures will return to the low 90s for Saturday and Sunday. Models are in general agreement of an upper-level low forming over southern California on Saturday. However, models diverge significantly from run to run on how to evolve this feature for early next week. The most recent runs show this upper low becoming an open wave over the Desert Southwest on Monday and having little to no effect on west central Texas. Earlier runs show the low holding together and and perhaps bringing some more rain chances to the region. For now, the forecast for Saturday through Monday was kept dry with temperatures near normal as the region will be under an upper-level ridge.

&&

.AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 525 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move over KABI, with isolated storms near KSJT this evening, before dissipating. Strong gusty winds and brief IFR visibilities possible. Another band of showers and thunderstorm with MVFR stratus will move in late night along a cold front, beginning 10-12Z at KABI and KSJT, then across the rest of the terminals after sunrise. Brief IFR ceilings and visibilities possible in the morning. Scattered to numerous showers across the terminals during the morning decrease in coverage at KABI and KSJT in the early/mid afternoon, but continue along the I-10 corridor including KSOA and KJCT. MVFR rise to VFR late afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 68 83 61 84 / 70 60 10 0 San Angelo 67 80 60 84 / 60 60 20 10 Junction 69 84 64 86 / 20 60 40 10 Brownwood 68 81 60 85 / 60 70 10 0 Sweetwater 66 82 60 83 / 70 60 10 0 Ozona 69 81 63 85 / 30 60 40 10 Brady 69 79 62 83 / 40 70 30 10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&

$$

SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....SK AVIATION...04

NWS SJT Office Area Forecast Discussion

WeatherForYou.com, LLC is not responsible for any damages or problems caused by this service. Current weather conditions are obtained from the closest government operated station, a personal station contributing to the PWSweather.com network or from the Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System (MADIS). Some weather information is powered by XWeather. WeatherForYou.com, NOAA, AerisWeather and their data providers disclaim liability of any kind whatsoever, including, without limitation, liability for quality, performance, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose arising out of the use or inability to use the data. Like all things, this site belongs to Jesus Christ ... He just trusts us to maintain it. If you have any questions or comments please use the suggestion box.

Copyright © 1999 - 2025, WeatherForYou.com LLC. All rights reserved.