Thousand Oaks California Weather Forecast Discussion

131
FXUS66 KLOX 071749
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1049 AM PDT Tue Oct 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...07/900 AM.
Night through morning low clouds and fog will continue through
the week with temperatures near to slightly below normal. There
is a slight chance of rain for late Thursday into Friday across
Los Angeles County.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...07/907 AM.
***UPDATE***
Marine layer firmly entrenched across the coast and valleys with
a depth ranging from around 2000 feet in LA County and sloping
down to around 1500 feet along the Central Coast. Overall,
expecting today to be very similar to Monday, perhaps a degree or
two warmer as there is a little offshore component this morning
that has some support aloft to the tune of 15-20kt at 850mb.
Otherwise, a very quiet day of weather locally and not expecting
much change tomorrow.
***From Previous Discussion***
Look for a fairly similar marine layer pattern on Wednesday with
just a little less vly coverage. The big news is the pattern shift
with strong SW flow setting up over Srn CA in response to the
southward progression of a anomalously large upper low west of the
WA cst. At the same time Hurricane Priscilla will begin her
northward trek just off the Baja cst. This pattern shift will not
affect the days weather much which will feature mostly sunny skies
save for the morning marine layer stratus and cooler temps due
lowering hgts and stronger onshore.
It looks like Priscilla will not be near enough to the area on
Thursday to affect the weather. The weather then will be
dominated by the SW flow around the south end of the upper low.
Offshore flow is forecast to develop from the north and this will
limit the amount of low clouds south of Pt Conceptions. Max temps
will continue to run 2 to 4 degrees blo normal.
.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...07/1228 AM.
There is, perhaps, a little less uncertainty with the Fri/Sat
forecast as more ensembles are now favoring a scenario where the
strong SW flow assoc with the large upper low picks up and sweeps
the moisture from Priscilla to the east. There are still some
ensemble members that show rain for LA county so a 15 to 20
percent chc of rain remains in the forecast. The trof should start
to disrupt the marine layer and there will be less and less
morning low clouds. Weaker onshore (or even weak offshore) sfc
pressure gradients will being warming to most areas Friday. Cool
air advection from the trof passing overhead Saturday will cool
the csts/vlys 2 to 4 degrees and the interior 4 to 8 degrees.
Long wave troffing sets up over the area on Sunday. There should
be no morning low clouds as the cool air and mixing from
Saturday`s trof passage will likely destroy the marine inversion.
IN addition there will be some offshore flow with some gusty
northerly winds. Mostly sunny skies, the lack of cool air
advection and the offshore flow will allow for several degrees of
warming. Even with the warming most max temps will end up 3 to 5
degrees below normal.
Another trof will rotate out of the interior on Monday with
another shot of cold air advection. There is the potential for
some very gusty northerly winds in the wake of this trof later in
the day. Cool air from the trof passage will lower max temps
another 2 to 3 degrees. With almost all cst/vly locations expected
to see max temps in the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...07/1748Z.
At 1642Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2000 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was near 2900 feet with a temperature of 21 C.
High confidence in VFR TAFs for desert airfields (KPMD & KWJF).
Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. VFR transitions could be
off by +/- 90 minutes. Return of low clouds this evening could be
off by +/- 2 hours.
KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30% chance CIGs do
not clear or scatter briefly, before returning around 00Z Wed -
(+/- 2 hours). Subsequent clearing time should also be accurate
within +/- 2 hours from current forecast. No significant east wind
component expected.
KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Arrival time of likely IFR
CIGs may be off by +/- 2 hours. Likely chance of LIFR CIGs at
times through 15Z Wed.
&&
.MARINE...07/826 AM.
Across the outer waters and nearshore along the Central Coast
conditions are likely to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
criteria through Thursday, with increasing winds to near or above
SCA levels possible by Friday, generally south of Point Conception.
SCA winds are likely for the weekend, with a 30% chance for gale
force winds Saturday.
For the inner waters south of Point Conception, conditions should
generally remain below SCA criteria through mid week. Isolated
gusts approaching SCA levels are possible this evening and
Wednesday evening near Point Dume and the San Pedro Channel. There
will then be a 30-40% chance for SCA level winds Friday, with the
highest chance in the Santa Barbara Channel. Similar chances on
Saturday.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MW/Rorke
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Phillips/Black
SYNOPSIS...MW
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS LOX Office Area Forecast Discussion