Thomas Hill, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

429
FXUS63 KEAX 241105
AFDEAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
605 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Chance for rain/drizzle this morning. Isolated thunderstorm
  possible this afternoon south of I-70.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
This morning, the upper level trough which was the impetus for
yesterday`s showery day is extending from the western Great Lakes
into the central Plains. As we progress through the day, the upper
level trough will slowly move through the local area providing lift
for light showers and drizzle and isolated thunderstorm cannot
be ruled out this afternoon south of I-70. Cloud cover will keep
highs in the low to mid 70s. Tonight, the upper level trough
will shift east of the area as a surface ridge of high pressure
begins to build into the area from the Upper Midwest which will
dry conditions out. Tomorrow, the surface ridge axis will build
over the area. Aloft, a closed upper low will dig from the west
coast into the southwestern CONUS. This will allow downstream
upper level ridging to build over the eastern Rockies and
western Plains. This will provide height rises over the local
area allowing highs to rise into the mid to upper 70s. This
pattern will prevail Friday and Saturday with additional height
rises producing a warming trend with highs in the upper 70s to
lower 80s Friday and highs in the low to mid 80s Saturday.
Sunday the upper level ridge axis builds directly over area with
highs again in the low to mid 80s. Sunday into Monday the upper
level low over the southwestern CONUS will become an open wave
approaching the Plains. However, with the upper level ridge
firmly in place the upper level trough is shunted south of the
area into the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi River
Valley. This will keep conditions dry and seasonably warm into
early next week with highs in the low to mid 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 605 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
IFR cigs are expected thru 14Z at the TAF sites (except STJ).
Aft 14Z...cigs are fcst to lift to MVFR and remain there thru
18Z-20Z when bkn cigs btn 3-4kft are expected. Aft
23Z-00Z...just sct high clouds are expected. Winds will be out
of the north btn 5-10kts thru the pd.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73

NWS EAX Office Area Forecast Discussion