Theilman, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

814
FXUS63 KARX 040740
AFDARX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
240 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Breezy with near record to record warmth Today
- Lowered afternoon dew points for this weekend
- Elevated fire weather conditions for Northeast Iowa and
  Southeast Minnesota This Afternoon
- Rain chances return for Sunday night through Monday night
- Frost possible (up to 35%) in central Wisconsin Wednesday and
  Thursday mornings
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
Breezy with near record to record warmth Today
Like Friday, southerly winds will bring very warm air into the
region today. 925 mb temperatures will range from 22 to 24C.
This will result in high temperatures climbing into the mid- to
upper 80s. There could even be a few lower 90s.
Soundings show that the temperatures between 850 and 800 mb will
gradually warm this afternoon. This limit the mixing to around
850 mb. West of the Mississippi River, the south winds will be
around 25 mph with gusts of 30 to 40 mph. Meanwhile, for western
Wisconsin, the sustained south winds around 15 mph and gusts
around 25 mph.
The combination of near record to record temperatures, southerly
winds gusting into the 30 to 40 mph range, and dry fuels will result
in elevated fire weather conditions for this afternoon across
northeast Iowa and southeast Minnesota.
Lowered afternoon dew points for this weekend
Warming between 850 and 800 mb this afternoon will limit our
mixing to 850 mb. This will result in our dew points likely
falling into the mid- and upper 50s this afternoon and lower to
mid-50s on Sunday. As typical, the NBM is too high with its
surface dew points, so populated the grids with the 10th NBM
percentile. This resulted in relative humidities in the 30s and
40s this afternoon and from the mid-20s to mid-40s on Sunday
afternoon.
Rain chances return from Sunday Afternoon through Monday Night
From Sunday afternoon through Monday Night, a slow moving cold
front will move slowly southeast through the area. There should
be enough convergence along the front for showers and maybe a
few storms (based on surface-based CAPES climbing up to 250
J/kg). It continues to look like the better 0-3 and 0-6 km shear
will remain in the wake of the front. As a result, still not
anticipating any organized severe weather at this time.
Near-normal temperatures return from Tuesday through the
remainder of the work week
In the wake of the front, near normal temperatures will return
from Tuesday into Thursday. High temperatures will be primarily
in the 60s and low temperatures will range from the mid-30s to
mid-40s. The LREF-NH is showing up to a 35% chance of areas of
frost in central Wisconsin on Wednesday morning and up to a 15%
chance of areas of frost in central Wisconsin on Thursday
morning.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
As a low pressure system deepens across the Central and Northern
Plains, the surface pressure gradient will increase. In
addition, we will likely mix up to 850 mb. This will result in
the sustained south wind of around 20 knots and wind gusts up to
35 knots this afternoon in northeast Iowa and southeast
Minnesota. Meanwhile, in western Wisconsin, the south winds will
be sustained around 15 knots and gust to around 25 knots this
afternoon.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
The combination of near record to record temperatures, southerly
winds gusting into the 30 to 40 mph range, and dry fuels will
result in elevated fire weather conditions for this afternoon
across northeast Iowa and southeast Minnesota.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
La Crosse Regional Airport had a high temperature of 90F today. This
was only the 5th time that La Crosse has been 90F or warmer in
October. The other occurrences were on October 6, 1963 (93F);
October 1, 1976 (92F); October 3, 1997 (91F); and October 1, 2023
(91F).
Here are daily record highs/warm lows for Saturday with the current
forecasted high and lows. (Record (Year) / Forecast)
October 4 Record Highs:
        La Crosse: 88 (2005)/ 89
        Rochester: 84 (2005)/ 87
October 4 Warm Record Lows:
        La Crosse: 72 (2005)/ 66
        Rochester: 71 (2005)/ 68
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Boyne
AVIATION...Boyne
FIRE WEATHER...Boyne
CLIMATE...Boyne

NWS ARX Office Area Forecast Discussion