Tampa Palms, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

942
FXUS62 KTBW 181804
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
204 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Current satellite shows the clear divide between the moisture over
South Florida compared to the drier conditions over North Florida.
Highest rain chances today will be over SWFL, with the moisture
currently confined mostly south of I-4. However, enough there may be
enough moisture available along the interior portions of the
state to support some showers and storms later this afternoon into
the evening. Similar to yesterday, some showers and storms may be
more stationary in nature, increasing the risk for isolated urban
and street flooding. Be sure to remain vigilante and when you
come across a flooded road, turn around, don`t drown.
Tomorrow, the deep, tropical moisture that has been lingering over
South Florida will move east over the Atlantic allowing for dry air
to filter in. Rain chances remain limited through the weekend. By
the beginning of next week deep moisture will once again move over
the peninsula resulting in increased rain chances and cloud
cover. Temperatures through the remainder of the week into the
weekend remain in the low 90s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 202 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025
VFR conditions prevail through the afternoon. Some showers and
storms are expected to develop over SWFL and could move in the
vicinity of terminals. Likewise a few isolated showers and storms
could develop inland this evening. Dry air moves in tomorrow
limiting rain chances.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 202 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Northeast winds persist over the waters through the weekend
remaining below cautionary levels. Each afternoon winds will turn
onshore as a weak seabreeze tries to develop. Tonight, showers and
storms could be possible over the waters causing periods of gusty
winds.  Drier air moves in tomorrow through the weekend limiting
rain chances.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 202 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Drier air moves over the peninsula tomorrow and remains through
the weekend. however RH values should remain above critical
levels.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  74  92  75  92 /  10  10   0  10
FMY  73  91  74  92 /  20  30  10  30
GIF  73  92  73  92 /  10  20   0  20
SRQ  72  91  73  91 /  10  20  10  20
BKV  68  91  69  92 /  10  20   0  20
SPG  74  89  76  90 /  10  10   0  10
&&
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 2
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 3
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce
DECISION SUPPORT...Shiveley

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion