Tamina, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

697
FXUS64 KHGX 242332
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
632 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
- A frontal boundary will bring showers and thunderstorms today.
  Locally heavy rainfall (isolated totals over 5") could create
  localized flooding issues if the heavy rains occur over
  vulnerable locations.
- In addition to the marginal heavy rain threat, a few locally
  stronger thunderstorms are possible. The primary concern is
  damaging wind gusts.
- Drier air and slightly cooler temperatures prevail into the end
  of the week behind the front.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Widespread shower and isolated thunderstorm activity has developed
across the region as of noon today. Large scale lift will continue
to increase today as a mid/upper trough digs southward into the
region. In addition, a cold front will push through the area,
enhancing LL convergence. Therefore, the chance of deeper
convection (heavier showers and thunderstorms) will increase as
the afternoon progresses. Locally heavy rainfall capable of
localized flooding is the primary concern. Widespread rainfall
totals are expected to be manageable. But isolated totals over 5
inches are on the table this afternoon and evening. For areas near
the coast, the locally heavy rainfall threat will continue into
the overnight and early Thursday morning. We also cannot rule out
isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of locally
damaging wind gusts. But rainfall is the primary concern.
The front should be offshore on Thursday. However, it is expected
to be close enough to the coast to warrant some PoPs in our
southern/coastal counties. Drier and less hot air will be
filtering southward in the front`s wake. By Thursday afternoon,
dew points north of I-10 should drop into the 60s. By Friday
afternoon, dew points are expected to range from mid 50s well
inland to mid 60s at the coast. Afternoon highs Thursday-Saturday
are expected to average in the mid/upper 80s (around 90 in hotter
spots) with lows well down into the 60s (closer to 70 in the heart
of the urban heat island and low/mid 70s at the coast).
As we head into early next week, guidance suggests the initial
build of a ridge and an upward trend in temperatures. However, a
mid/upper low over SW CONUS may help to throw some vorticity our
way, introducing lift and a chance of showers/thunderstorms. For
now, we just have low PoPs across our southern/coastal counties
Monday and Tuesday.
Self
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
All sites at VFR. Ongoing TSRA with minimal impacts to terminals,
expected to continue over the next couple of hours. Northern
terminals should remain VFR through the period. IAH and southern
terminals may experience another round of SHRA/TSRA overnight as
elevated front moves through. Winds will be out of the NW through
the period and light.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Southwesterly flow and scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected through the rest of today. Later this afternoon and into
the evening and overnight, the chance of heavier showers and storms
increases as a frontal boundary approaches. Winds will veer westward
as the front approaches before shifting northwest and increasing
somewhat in the front`s wake on Thursday morning.
Despite the front`s passage, shower and thunderstorm chances will
linger well into Thursday. Drier conditions are expected Friday into
the weekend, before rain chances increase early next weeks.
Winds are expected light to moderate from the northwest to north on
Thursday, northeast on Friday, east-northeast on Saturday, and more
easterly early next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  69  87  64  88 /  30  10   0   0
Houston (IAH)  74  88  68  89 /  50  20   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  76  86  75  86 /  80  60  20   0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion