Tahchee, Arizona Weather Forecast Discussion

700
FXUS65 KFGZ 122308
AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
408 PM MST Fri Sep 12 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Gusty winds will continue into the early evening
before lighter winds and cooler temperatures arrive for the
weekend. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast to
continue through the might, mainly across eastern Arizona. Most
locations will see dry conditions over the weekend but a few
showers could linger over far eastern Arizona on Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A long-wave trough will gradually push eastward
across the western states over the next 24 hours ushering in a
drier air mass, lighter winds and cooler temperatures.
For this afternoon and overnight...Moisture and pockets of
instability will continue to linger over eastern Arizona, roughly
along and east of a Payson to Four Corners line. Storm coverage
will diminish during the evening hours but we expect that a few
storm cells will develop through the night across the same area.
Any stronger storms will be capable of producing near quarter
size hail and brief gusty winds of 40 to 50 mph. The remainder of
the area to the west will see clear skies, diminishing winds and
a slight extra chill to our overnight low temperatures.
On Saturday...There will remain a slight chance of a stray shower
or thunderstorms over far eastern Arizona. For the rest of the
area a dry air mass will push in from the west behind the eastward
moving trough. It will turn a bit cooler behind the trough and
with weaker pressure gradients developing daytime winds will turn
much lighter, generally from the west to southwest at 10 to 20
mph.
From Sunday through Wednesday...Mainly dry. There will be a
slight chance of showers/thunderstorms across the White
Mountains/eastern Mogollon Rim region on Tuesday and Wednesday as
moisture is pulled northward by a weak passing trough. Otherwise,
seasonable temperatures and light winds at 5 to 15 mph are
forecast.
Late next week...Forecast models shows another long-wave trough
approaching the western states drawing moisture northward across
Arizona. Too early to make any firm statements but we`ll be
keeping any eye on another potential increase in shower and
thunderstorm chances.
&&
.AVIATION...Saturday 13/00Z through Sunday 14/00Z...Mainly VFR
conditions expected, isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA possible
overnight east of the Highway 87 corridor. Isolated SHRA/TSRA
possible after 12Z along the Utah and New Mexico border. Winds
light and variable or terrain driven overnight, becoming SW
10-15kts gusts 20-30kts Saturday after 15-18Z.
OUTLOOK...Sunday 14/00Z through Tuesday 16/00Z...VFR conditions
expected. No precipitation Sunday, isolated thunderstorms possible
near White Mountains Monday. Winds SW 5-15kts Sunday, SW 5-10kts
Monday. Light and variable or terrain driven during overnight
hours.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday...Seasonably cool and turning
dry. Winds are southwest through west 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 20
to 25 mph on Saturday, then southwest 5 to 15 mph on Sunday.
Isolated storms on Saturday confined to areas right along the UT and
NM state lines, dry on Sunday.
Monday through Wednesday...Mostly dry with seasonal daytime
temperatures. Minimum RH is generally 10-20%, locally higher at high
elevation sites. Daytime winds are southwest through west 5 to 15
mph. Chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms in the White
Mountains each day.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...McCollum
AVIATION...Bernhart
FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

NWS FGZ Office Area Forecast Discussion