Sylvan Grove, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

307
FXUS63 KICT 171135
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
635 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Periodic scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms early
  this morning through Thursday night areawide.
- Potential for a continued off-and-on active pattern this
  weekend through early to mid next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
PRECIPITATION:
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A deep upper trough approaching
slowly from the west will support off-and-on scattered to numerous
showers/thunderstorms across the region today through Thursday
night. Thinking activity will be most widespread/numerous this
morning over central Kansas, and again tonight through Thursday
evening areawide. While a handful of marginally severe thunderstorms
are possible throughout this time period (especially during the
mid/late afternoon through evening hours), most activity should
remain below severe levels. Locally heavy rainfall is possible as
well, which could support isolated flooding concerns. Model
consensus supports widespread rainfall amounts of 0.25 to 0.50
inches through Thursday night, with localized 1-2+ inch amounts
possible.
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...While there remains
quite a bit of uncertainty, deterministic consensus supports a
continued off-and-on active pattern this weekend through early to
mid next week, as various shortwaves progress over the region within
progressive west-northwest flow aloft. Stay tuned as we refine
forecast details in the coming days.
TEMPERATURES:
Seasonably warm temperatures look to persist today, with forecast
highs in the low 80s to low 90s, warmest over far southeast Kansas.
By Thursday, increased precipitation chances and decreasing
atmospheric thickness will support a slight cool down, with many
locations in the 70s to low 80s for daytime highs. By the weekend,
temperatures should get back to seasonal normals in the 80s, as both
thickness and southerly flow increase across Mid-America.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 628 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
A strong upper trough approaching from the west will be the
focus for off-and-on scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms
across the region the next 24 hours. Confidence is low on exact
timing and location of storms, but overall thinking chances
will be moderate to high through mid-late this morning,
generally northwest of the KS Turnpike. Could then see a bit of
a lull in thunderstorm activity, with chances increasing once
again by late this afternoon and persisting off-and-on through
tonight areawide, although the CNU TAF site could be spared.
Widespread severe weather chances are low, although a few
isolated storms late this afternoon and evening could support
nickel size hail, 50-65 mph winds, and locally heavy rainfall.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...ADK

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion