Stokes Bridge, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

110
FXUS62 KCAE 270014
AFDCAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
814 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered to widespread showers continue this evening and
overnight as the cold front very slowly approaches. The rain
chances persist into the weekend and early next week with lower
temperatures. Heavy rainfall and strong winds are possible early
next week as we monitor tropical development.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Key message(s):
- Slow moving trough and front will continue to bring rain
  chances overnight tonight and into Saturday morning.
Convection has generally began to wane this evening outside of
a batch south of the I-95 corridor, but fairly widespread light
to moderate rain continues to work through the FA. So far, a
swath of 0.75-1.5" of rain has fallen generally along and just
north of the I- 20 corridor where a couple spots toward 2-2.5"
have been noted. There is also a swath of 0.50-1.5" in southern
Sumter and northern Clarendon Counties where convection
currently is. The upper trough continues to work into the area
with a closed circulation seen in Water Vapor imagery in
southern Tennessee. The associated surface cold front really
slowed down today with it still just northwest of the FA. For
the remainder of the evening and overnight, a tongue of PWAT`s
between 1.8-2.0" along with forcing the from the upper trough
and slow moving surface front should allow at least scattered
rain showers to continue. In general, an additional 0.25-1.25"
of rainfall could be possible into Saturday morning, with the
highest likelihood along and south of the I-95 corridor where
convection may continue for the next couple hours before
transitioning to light to moderate rain.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Showers and thunderstorms expected Saturday afternoon
An upper level trough will swing into the Southeast into the
short term and become negatively tilted. The forecast area will
be under the upper jet streak allowing for synoptic scale lift
over the region. PWAT values will be around 2 inches across the
eastern FA with slightly drier air to the west. As a surface
front slowly moves into the forecast area it will be the focus
for convective development as the air mass destabilizes in the
afternoon. Synoptic support and PWAT values 140 to 160 percent
of normal favors widespread convection and the potential for
localized flash flooding. The threat of heavy rain is greatest
in the eastern half of SC where moisture is deepest. Although
any training of convective cells in the forecast area could
contribute to flash flooding in localized areas. Rain chances
will likely diminish by Saturday night as the initial trough
axis moves to our northeast along with the deeper moisture. This
will lead to diminishing rain chances into Sunday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key message(s):
- Potential for heavy rain, strong winds next week
A low pressure system appears to be forming near eastern Cuba
and the southeastern Bahamas. Gradual development of this
system is expected, and it will likely become a tropical
depression during the next day or so while it moves
northwestward or northward across the central and northwestern
Bahamas.
The weather for the forecast area in the long term will be
largely dependent on the eventual track and intensity of this
system. Without getting into the complexity of the forecast, the
biggest concern is the potential for heavy rain and flash
flooding across the forecast area from late this weekend into
next week. Strong winds will also be possible but this threat is
even more closely tied to the track of this system. At this
point, people should continue to monitor the forecast over the
weekend so that they remain up to date on the potential
hazardous weather.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Periods of showers expected overnight and into Saturday.
MVFR/IFR conditions in stratus likely Saturday morning.
Guidance continues to show periods of rainfall through the
overnight hours and into portions of Saturday. Even with the
showers this evening, ceilings should remain vfr, with brief
mvfr visibilities in any heavier showers possible. Later tonight
ceilings will begin to lower, with ifr conditions still
expected to develop towards 10z at all locations, lasting to
around 14 as they improve to mvfr. Vfr finally expected by 18z.
Winds will remain fairly light and variable overnight before
turning more out of the southeast around 5 knots by Saturday
afternoon.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Deep moisture remains in place this
weekend leading to likely rain chances and possible widespread
restrictions.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.
&&
$$

NWS CAE Office Area Forecast Discussion