Stambaugh, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

851
FXUS63 KMQT 221123
AFDMQT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
723 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and storms expected today. A strong storm or
  two can`t be ruled out, but severe weather is not expected.
- Patchy dense fog continues this morning and is expected again
  tonight, reducing visibility down to 1/4 mile at times.
- Seasonable temperatures continue through the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 433 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Early morning GOES WV imagery has the main shortwave over W Lake
Superior with a few weak impulses lifting NE over the Midwest/Great
Lakes. Looking upstream, there is a deeper trough moving toward the
Rockies and a ridge over the Four Corners. Sfc obs indicate a slow
moving warm front to the S with temps in the UP hovering at or just
a degree or two above Tds in the mid 50s to mid 60s. This in tandem
with calm winds is supporting patchy FG which will continue through
this morning. Areas of +FG are expected in the S-Central this
morning, likely impacting the morning commute. Opted to hoist a
Dense Fog Advisory for Dickinson, Menominee, and Delta Counties
through 8 AM Central/ 9 AM Eastern where confidence was highest for
FG coverage. A future SPS may be issued to address patchy +FG in
other areas of the UP. Be sure to take it slow and to have your low-
beam headlights on if traveling through FG this morning.
This moisture is also supporting elevated instability of 500-1000
j/kg per the latest SPC mesoanalysis. The current radar mosaic is
fairly quiet in the CWA, but attention is focused over W WI where
ongoing TSRA is thanks to the shortwave moving in. As this wave
pivots overhead today, this convection will continue lifting NE over
the UP. While a few stronger storms are possible given 750-1600 j/kg
of MUCAPE and lapse rates approaching 7C/km, severe weather is not
expected with bulk shear struggling to exceed 25-30 kts. SHRA/TS
coverage will diminish through tonight as instability and lift
weaken. Also, particularly heavy QPF is not expected in any one
location, though some SHRA may be capable of producing a few
bullseyes of 0.5-1.0" given tall, skinny CAPE profiles and PWAT
values of 1-1.25". Otherwise temps should be similar today in the
mid 60s to low 70s. FG is an expected concern again tonight with
light winds and ample low level moisture, especially after today`s
precip. Latest HREF probabilities of +FG (1/4 mi visibility or
lower) are between 25-50% across much of the UP. Expect
significantly less precip on Tue, but a few iso -shra could linger
as the shortwave spins relatively stationary.
For the mid to late portion of the work week, a positively tilted
trough over the Plains moves E to the MS River Valley while the
shortwave in the Great Lakes region continues spinning relatively
stationary. How exactly these mid level features interact and the
resulting sfc low`s track are still a bit murky, but most precip is
likely to remain SE of the CWA. While a few stray -SHRA may graze
the UP on Wed, left the NBM fcst as is which leaves most of the CWA
dry.
Looking at the weekend, a quickly propagating deep trough well to
the N Thursday and Thursday night sends a sfc low over the N
Canadian Prairie and out over Hudson Bay. This looks to send a sfc
trough and a cold front through the region on Fri. Latest guidance
now quickly follows that up on Sat with another fast moving deep
trough and sfc low. The lack of instability and moisture as well as
the speed of which these systems move through leave much to desire
for precip chances. Also, given the model spread at this point,
confidence is low in the fcst. The NBM for now remains mostly dry,
but there is plenty of time for this to change. What is more likely
to occur during this time is breezy winds.
Otherwise, temps by and large remain fairly steady the remainder of
the fcst with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s. Lows could start to
dip back into the 40s late this week as clearer skies promote more
optimal radiative cooling processes.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 722 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Abundant moisture will continue to impact KCMX/KIWD/KSAW in this TAF
period, with ceilings and visibility restrictions commonplace. At
KIWD, VFR conditions may be realized later after morning fog mixes
out, but expected IFR and then LIFR conditions to reappear tonight.
The same conditions are expected at KCMX and KSAW, although
improvement to MVFR at best today is expected instead. Exceeding
airport minimums looks possible at all terminals tonight, but
especially so at KSAW, which currently has a 50% chance of falling
below 0.25SM tonight, per latest HREF. Outside of ceilings and
visibility restrictions, scattered showers and thunderstorms are
also expected at all terminals. Prob30 and tempo groups were used to
highlight this potential.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 433 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Light winds are expected to hold 15 kts or less through most of the
work week until a cold front quickly drops southeast over the region
Thursday night/Friday. Winds behind this front may push back up into
the 20-25 kt range. This looks to quickly be followed by a low
pressure system on Saturday bringing more elevated winds into the 20-
25 kt range. That said, spread in track and timing of both of these
features is low at this time. This likely will keep significant wave
heights below 2 ft until the weekend when stronger winds arrive.
Otherwise patchy dense fog will be the main concern through Tuesday
morning. Isolated showers and potentially a few storms will lift
northeast over the lake today.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ this morning for
     MIZ011>013.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
  Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LMZ221-248-
     250.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Jablonski
AVIATION...JTP
MARINE...Jablonski

NWS MQT Office Area Forecast Discussion