Spring Valley, Arizona Weather Forecast Discussion

098
FXUS65 KFGZ 170436
AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
936 PM MST Tue Sep 16 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Limited showers and thunderstorms today and Wednesday,
before we begin to see a gradual increase in moisture Thursday
through the first part of the weekend. Outside of precipitation
chances, seasonable temperatures and generally light winds are
forecast.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Southern Apache and Navajo counties have been the
"hot spot" for showers/storms today. Most of the activity we`ve
seen has been along and south of a Winslow-St. Johns line, but we
can`t completely rule out a stray shower elsewhere in our CWA.
Otherwise, dry and warm weather is anticipated across northern
Arizona. Similar conditions will be on tap for Wednesday, where
the White Mountains and eastern Mogollon Rim will have the best
chances for showers/storms.
Thursday is where things could become more interesting. Arizona
will remain under an area of high pressure, and a trough will be
located to our west. This pattern mixed with any remnant moisture
from Tropical Storm Mario may result in elevated chances for
showers and thunderstorms. There is decent agreement among model
guidance for activity to ramp up Thursday through Saturday,
especially along and south of a Fredonia-St. Johns line. The 13Z
run of the NBM shows CAPE values generally between 200-750 J/kg
by Friday afternoon, where the higher instability values look to
be focused across Yavapai County. So if we do see stronger showers
and thunderstorms, they will likely be concentrated over the
southwestern portion of our CWA.
Sunday onward, high pressure looks to strengthen over Arizona.
This will result in above normal daytime highs, generally light
winds, and mostly dry conditions. There is some indication that
more unsettled weather could return later next week, as a trough
potentially descends down from the Pacific Northwest. There is
still plenty of time to hash out the details on all this, so stay
tuned!
&&
.AVIATION...Wednesday 17/06Z through Thursday 18/06Z...VFR
conditions are forecast. Look for isolated -SHRA/-TSRA Wednesday
afternoon, mainly near and south of a KPAN-KJTC line. Daytime
winds west to northwest at 5-15 kts, turning light and variable at
night.
OUTLOOK...Thursday 18/06Z through Saturday 20/06Z...Mainly VFR
conditions are expected. On Thursday, scattered SHRA/TSRA mainly
south of Interstate-40, then spreading across all of northern
Arizona Thursday night and Friday. Wind gusts of 25-35 kts and
MVFR conditions possible in and around storms. Daytime winds west
to southwest at 5-15 kts on Thursday and Friday, light and
variable at night
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Mostly dry on Wednesday,
with only isolated showers and thunderstorms south of the Eastern
Rim. Cooler on Thursday, with scattered thunderstorms (25-35%
chance) most numerous south and west of the Mogollon Rim. Winds
generally light from the west.
Friday through Sunday...Cooler. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms each day, with best chance for wetting rains (50-70%)
on Friday. Wind south through west 5-15 mph each day.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Konieczny
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...BAK
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

NWS FGZ Office Area Forecast Discussion