Spring Hill, Tennessee Weather Forecast Discussion

250
FXUS64 KOHX 211111
AFDOHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
611 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 611 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
- Increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms each day with
  rain likely area-wide by midweek. Local heavy rain possible and
  gusty winds with any afternoon/early evening storms that
  develop.
- Temperatures trending downward to normal levels by late week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 524 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Just sent out a fresh set of short-term forecast grids to account
for the storms approaching the TN River. CAM initiations are not
handling these well at all. Have bumped PoPs over the next several
hours, especially across our northwest quadrant as a few rumbles
of thunder can be expected. This wave should clear the area by
mid-morning and allow for additional isolated to scattered storms
to develop this afternoon. Biggest concern continues to be gusty
winds (40-50 mph) with any afternoon storms, but today should be
the start of periods of storms on the radar for the next several
days -- and we`ll take all we can get.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday Night)
Issued at 1115 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Isolated showers and storms occurred Friday evening and again
Saturday evening. Continued weakening of the warm upper level
ridge and a series of impulses from the west will increase
coverage of scattered showers and storms for Sunday. Although the
coverage will peak in the afternoon and early evening, some
showers and storms may begin in the morning as the first impulse
arrives. As temps warm through the day, a few of the scattered storms
could produce heavy downpours, gusty winds over 40 mph, and
perhaps some small hail. Forecast soundings show DCAPE again
reaching around 1000 with precipitable water climbing from around
1.25" to over 1.50". Shear is minimal. The higher PW values may
result in issuance of a few flood advisories in areas where heavy
downpours linger. Localized rain over 2 inches could occur,
although around half of our coverage area will remain dry.
Coverage will trend up a little more for Monday as atmospheric
moisture deepens and more disturbances come our way. A couple of
strong storms with gusty winds will continue to be possible along
with pockets of local heavy downpours.
High temperatures Sunday and Monday will be a few degrees cooler
than recent days thanks to lower heights, more clouds, and higher
coverage of showers and storms.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1115 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
A trend toward higher rain chances and lower temperatures will
occur through midweek. A series of disturbances in zonal flow
between a trough over the Great Lakes and a ridge over TX will
bring the increasingly unsettled conditions. Atmospheric moisture
will deepen through the period giving greater coverage of showers
and storms. Greatest coverage will occur in the afternoon hours,
but chances will be in the forecast other times as well.
Wednesday into Thursday, the Great Lakes trough will combine with
a wave coming out of the Rockies to produce a deep closed low just
to our west. This will help focus deep moisture and lift over our
area with rain becoming likely. Rainfall amounts Wednesday into
Thursday could total 2 to 3 inches in some spots, so local
flooding will be a concern.
Coverage and intensity of rain will taper down late week, but it
will still be showery with a good deal of cloud cover as the upper
low drifts slowly overhead. We can look forward to cooler, near
normal temperatures late week with lows mostly upper 50s and lower
60s and highs in the 70s to lower 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Storms approaching CKV at issuance time will bring MVFR vis for
several hours. This will spread across all terminals today,
providing reductions in categories for a few hours at each
terminal. Winds will remain light from the southwest, but will
need to watch closely for any amd due to increased storm winds,
especially this afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      89  68  90  68 /  50  30  60  40
Clarksville    89  66  90  67 /  80  20  60  60
Crossville     83  62  81  61 /  50  40  50  30
Columbia       90  67  89  67 /  40  30  60  30
Cookeville     85  64  84  65 /  50  40  60  40
Jamestown      84  63  82  64 /  50  30  60  40
Lawrenceburg   89  65  87  65 /  50  30  60  30
Murfreesboro   90  67  89  66 /  50  30  70  40
Waverly        87  65  89  65 /  80  20  60  50
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......Unger
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Unger

NWS OHX Office Area Forecast Discussion