Spring Creek, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

112
FXUS63 KLBF 100922
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
422 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Other than isolated western high plains thunderstorm chances.
  Overall conditions look dry until this weekend when rain
  chances will increase some.
- A warm weather pattern will continue as well. Highs in the 80s
  are expected the rest of this week, and into the weekend and
  the first of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 414 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Upper level ridge axis is centered across the southern and central
plains today downstream of a upper trough digging along the west
coast. At the surface, leeward troughing will deepen ahead of the
western U.S. trough. Pressure gradient will tighten through the day
as this occurs...with southeast low-level flow increasing. Gusts in
the 25-30 mph range are expected by this afternoon across the
northern Panhandle. Removed the smoke mention from the forecast as
model data (HRRR/RAP) really doesn`t support much in the way of
smoke at the surface. This is due to the increasing southerly-
southeasterly flow shunting the smoke northward into the northern
plains.
Overall the forecast looks dry today into tonight. This seems
reasonable given the upper ridge axis across the area. The exception
could be across far northwest Nebraska this evening, where a cluster
of showers/thunder could clip that area as it moves northeast off
the higher terrain of Wyoming. Chances appear better across western
South Dakota, however.
The ridge axis begins to shift eastward slightly Thursday as the
upper trough inches slowly eastward across the western CONUS. South
to southeast low-level flow continues as leeward troughing remains
established across the far western high plains. Low-level moisture
will continue to slowly increase, with much of the area seeing dew
points in the mid 60s by Thursday afternoon. Southwest flow aloft
will increase some across western Nebraska as the upper trough
continues to move slowly eastward toward the area. Better forcing
aloft remains west of our area, but could still see a stronger storm
or two try and push eastward into northwest Nebraska Thursday
evening.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 414 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
The upper trough remains west of the area yet Friday. The leeward
trough does try and push eastward into western Nebraska during the
afternoon. This could serve as the focus for some late afternoon
convection, with that convection spreading eastward into portions
of the Sandhills and northern Nebraska Friday night.
Saturday the trough axis begins to swing eastward toward the central
and northern plains. Heights fall across the area as a surface low
deepens some across South Dakota. A trailing surface trough across
western Nebraska could again be the focus for convection. Chances do
look better Saturday afternoon and Saturday night compared to Friday
as forcing aloft increases.
Chances for convection will continue Sunday as the upper trough
pivots north-northeastward across the northern plains. A surface
trough will remain nearly stationary from northeast to southwest
across the area, again serving for potential convective development.
Conditions look to remain on the warm side into the first of next
week. With the upper trough expecting to pivot north-northeastward
this weekend. No real cold front ever makes it through the area.
This will allow highs to remain in the 80s through the weekend into
the first of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Area convection continues to diminish heading into the early
morning on Wednesday. This trend should continue over the next
hour or so, leaving the remainder of the forecast period dry.
The main aviation concern will focus on the threat for fog,
favoring central Nebraska. This will keep LBF and VTN on the
western periphery and limit confidence in magnitude of impacts.
For now, believe LBF should see greater impacts given propensity
of valley fog to overachieve. Have inserted low-end MVFR for now
but believe IFR conditions, at least briefly, cannot be ruled
out. Conditions should improve by mid-morning, leaving VFR
conditions for the remainder of the period and gusty southeast
winds peaking around 25 knots.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...NMJ

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion