Sofia New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

318
FXUS65 KABQ 070718
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
118 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 115 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025
- Showers and thunderstorms return to areas of central and eastern
  NM today. Locally heavy rainfall will threaten flash flooding
  over low laying and poorly drained areas, including the Ruidoso
  area burn scars this afternoon and evening.
- There is a marginal risk for a few thunderstorms to become
  strong to severe producing frequent lightning, hail, and strong
  wind gusts.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 115 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025
A frontal boundary has advanced thru the gaps of the central
mountain chain tonight bringing east canyon winds gusting 15 to
30mph thru Santa Fe and Albuquerque. Cooler temperatures and higher
moisture highlighted by Td`s in the 40s and 50s lay in its way
across eastern NM. Low stratus with splotches of patchy fog and mist
also lay across parts of northeastern NM which will be slow to erode
this morning. All of this underlays a synoptic troughing pattern
over the western CONUS bringing southwesterly shear aloft over NM.
HiRes CAMs are now biting on showers and thunderstorms favoring
initiation along the leading edge of this cooler and more moist
airmass along the south-central mountains and portions of the middle
Rio Grande Valley this afternoon. Modest SBCAPE of 500-1000 j/kg
alongside stronger bulk shear of 40-50kts will allow for a few cells
to become strong to severe supporting the SPC`s marginal risk thru
central NM this afternoon. The cluster of initial storm cells moving
northeastward off the south-central mountains will look to fizzle
out over parts of eastern NM before the cluster of convection over
the middle Rio Grande Valley is favored to drift southeastward
becoming outflow dominant riding against the grain into surface
southeasterly flow. A slight risk for excessive rainfall has been
introduced to the central highlands southward to the Ruidoso area
burn scars where two rounds of moderate to locally heavy rainfall
will be possible this afternoon and evening. Widespread 0.10" to
0.50" will favor this central swath of NM with localized amounts up
to 2.00" possible where the heaviest rains occur. A Flash Flood
Watch will be issued for the Ruidoso area burn scars.
Showers will be slow to dissipate across eastern and central NM
heading into Wednesday morning. Moisture advection advances a bit
further west reaching the AZ border. Given the central portions of
NM should be worked over well from Tuesday`s activity, instability
will favor convective initiation along the Continental Divide
Wednesday afternoon. Another marginal risk for excessive rainfall
remains in this area and the Rio Grande Valley where storms will be
favored to go Wednesday evening.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 115 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025
An area of high pressure builds in from the TX Big Bend area
Thursday, shunting northerly advection of sub-tropical moisture into
AZ and the Four Corners area. Convective activity will shift to this
area as a result. Numerical model guidance continues to trend into
better agreement that an upper level trough over the PacNW will
continue to stream remnant moisture from Hurricane Priscilla into
the Desert Southwest, mainly AZ and the Four Corners region.
Precipitation chances steadily shift west to east over the forecast
area as the upper level trough moves west over the western CONUS,
breaking down the ridge over TX and southeastern NM.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 115 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025
A frontal boundary has pushed thru the gaps of the central mountain
chain bringing east canyon winds thru KSAF and KABQ tonight. Gusts
of 20 to 30kts can be expected to persist well thru the overnight
period into Wednesday morning lessening closer to sunrise. Wind
directions at KAEG in particular will be difficult and amds may be
necessary as winds have wrapped around the northern edge of the
Sandia Mts and northerly to northeasterly direction at KAEG still
looks favored to begin there at some point. These northerly winds
will compete against the easterlies pushing thru Tijeras Canyon and
eddies are likely to develop over portions of the northern ABQ metro
area tonight thru Tuesday morning. Elsewhere, IFR/MVFR ceilings are
spreading across northeastern NM and will expand into east-central
NM and the central highlands tonight. These lower ceilings are
likely to persist thru much of the day Tuesday. Sporadic shower and
isolated thunderstorm activity is also likely to continue over parts
of eastern NM tonight into early Tuesday morning. Otherwise, the
main period for showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
along the Sandia/Manzanos and south-central mountains Tuesday
afternoon spreading across the Rio Grande Valley late afternoon and
early evening threatening localized MVFR conditions to KABQ/KAEG.
This activity will track eastward over the central highlands and
over eastern NM toward KCVN and KROW Tuesday evening.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 115 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025
No fire weather concerns through the next seven days. Cooler
temperatures and higher moisture will be entrenched across eastern
NM today and Wednesday. Otherwise, prevailing winds and humidity
will remain notably outside critical fire weather thresholds.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  79  52  79  55 /   0  10  10  10
Dulce...........................  76  41  70  44 /   5  30  40  30
Cuba............................  72  46  68  47 /  30  30  60  40
Gallup..........................  79  46  77  49 /   0   5  20  20
El Morro........................  75  48  71  48 /  20  20  50  30
Grants..........................  74  47  72  48 /  30  30  60  40
Quemado.........................  79  49  74  49 /  30  10  40  30
Magdalena.......................  74  52  70  52 /  60  40  50  30
Datil...........................  73  48  69  48 /  40  30  60  40
Reserve.........................  83  48  77  49 /  10  10  40  30
Glenwood........................  87  55  80  54 /  10  10  30  30
Chama...........................  69  41  64  42 /  10  30  50  30
Los Alamos......................  67  50  66  51 /  40  40  60  30
Pecos...........................  62  46  65  47 /  20  50  50  30
Cerro/Questa....................  69  44  66  46 /  20  20  30  20
Red River.......................  60  38  58  39 /  20  20  30  10
Angel Fire......................  63  34  63  34 /  30  20  30  10
Taos............................  71  45  68  46 /  20  20  20  20
Mora............................  61  42  66  42 /  30  40  50  20
Espanola........................  75  50  72  50 /  30  40  50  30
Santa Fe........................  67  50  66  50 /  20  50  50  30
Santa Fe Airport................  70  49  69  49 /  30  50  50  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  75  56  72  57 /  60  60  50  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  78  55  75  56 /  60  50  40  40
Albuquerque Valley..............  80  54  76  55 /  60  50  40  40
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  78  55  75  55 /  60  50  40  40
Belen...........................  81  53  78  54 /  70  50  40  40
Bernalillo......................  79  54  75  54 /  50  50  40  40
Bosque Farms....................  80  52  77  52 /  70  50  40  40
Corrales........................  79  54  75  54 /  50  50  40  40
Los Lunas.......................  80  52  77  53 /  70  50  40  40
Placitas........................  74  53  71  54 /  50  60  50  40
Rio Rancho......................  79  54  74  55 /  50  50  40  40
Socorro.........................  83  57  78  57 /  60  40  40  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  67  49  67  50 /  60  60  50  40
Tijeras.........................  70  51  69  52 /  60  60  50  40
Edgewood........................  67  49  69  48 /  60  60  50  40
Moriarty/Estancia...............  67  47  70  45 /  60  60  50  30
Clines Corners..................  59  46  65  48 /  60  70  50  30
Mountainair.....................  69  49  70  49 /  70  60  50  40
Gran Quivira....................  70  49  70  48 /  70  60  50  30
Carrizozo.......................  74  54  72  53 /  50  50  40  20
Ruidoso.........................  63  49  65  48 /  60  60  40  20
Capulin.........................  56  46  67  47 /  30  20  10   5
Raton...........................  58  47  70  46 /  30  20  10   5
Springer........................  60  48  72  46 /  30  20  10   5
Las Vegas.......................  54  46  65  46 /  40  50  40  20
Clayton.........................  55  50  70  55 /  30  30  10   0
Roy.............................  56  49  66  51 /  40  40  20   5
Conchas.........................  61  53  73  55 /  40  50  30   5
Santa Rosa......................  61  52  70  53 /  40  60  50  20
Tucumcari.......................  61  53  74  54 /  40  50  40   0
Clovis..........................  65  55  74  56 /  50  70  30   0
Portales........................  66  55  74  56 /  50  60  30   0
Fort Sumner.....................  66  55  72  56 /  50  80  40   5
Roswell.........................  72  59  77  59 /  40  70  30   5
Picacho.........................  69  54  71  54 /  50  60  40  10
Elk.............................  69  51  68  51 /  50  50  40  10
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from noon MDT today through late tonight for NMZ226.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion