Soddy Daisy, Tennessee Weather Forecast Discussion

316
FXUS64 KMRX 301104 AAA
AFDMRX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
704 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 700 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible today,
  focused mainly in the eastern half of the area.
- Dry seasonal fall weather is expected Wednesday through the
  weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1254 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
The pattern consists of pinched ridging aloft over the Mississippi
Valley with associated strong surface high pressure over Ontario,
and an eventual eastern shift to Quebec. Tropical Storm Imelda
and Hurricane Humberto almost spin in unison within troughing to
our east. The only impacts we can expect from them, will be
increased moisture and instability later today to support showers
and thunderstorms. Best chances (40-50%) will be along the
Appalachians extending from southwest VA south to southwest NC.
Parts of the valley may experience anywhere from a 20-35% chance
of precipitation. The most recent SPC Outlook for today circles
most of our forecast area only for general thunderstorms.
Persistent cloud cover today will notably keep temperatures cooler
across our most eastern locations.
After a couple of warmer than normal days, a dry pattern will be
underway Wednesday, persisting until around the middle of the
weekend. Temperatures will be a couple of degrees cooler. Drier
air will also follow suit. The next chance for precipitation may
not be until towards the end of the forecast period when moisture
is advected north from a Gulf Coast frontal boundary.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 700 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
ISOLD to SCT SHRA and perhaps a few embedded TSRA are expected
across east TN this afternoon. Confidence is pretty low, but the
best signals in guidance favor KTRI and KCHA seeing some.
Otherwise the only concern in the 12z TAF period will be whether
fog development occurs tonight. Calm winds and thinning high
clouds would seem to favor it. Added in some MVFR VSBY at KTRI
late tonight to account for this.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             85  64  85  61 /  20  10   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  82  61  83  58 /  20  10   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       82  61  84  57 /  20   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              74  56  80  53 /  40  10   0   0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...CD

NWS MRX Office Area Forecast Discussion