Smyrna, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

914
FXUS62 KFFC 170945
AFDFFC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
545 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 209 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Key Messages
- Isolated showers and thunderstorms are anticipated in Georgia
   through 10 PM this evening.
- Rain showers could impact the morning commute in the Atlanta
   Metro.
- Dry weather and warming temperatures are expected on Thursday.
For Today:
A closed low over the Mid-Atlantic will fling multiple weak
shortwaves through Georgia today. The initial wave will track
through north Georgia this morning, leading to an increase in
convection between 4 AM and 10 AM. Instability will be very marginal
during this period (MUCAPE 200 to 500 J/kg), but this may be
sufficient for a few isolated lightning strikes. Any storm or shower
activity should be most widespread along Interstate 20. Some
rainfall is anticipated in the Atlanta Metro for the morning commute.
A second shortwave will drift south along the AL/GA border this
afternoon. This feature should be weaker than this mornings wave,
but it will align better with the peak in diurnal heating. MUCAPE
values in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range should provide enough
instability to produce isolated thunderstorms, especially between 4
PM and 10 PM. Poor mid level lapse rates and a lack of meaningful
shear suggest little to no severe threat. Thus lightning will be the
main threat with any storms.
Today`s high temperatures will be 3 to 6 degrees above seasonal
averages and nearly identical to what occurred on Tuesday.
Widespread highs in the upper 80s are anticipated, with a few spots
touching 90 degrees in central Georgia. Elevations above 2500 ft in
mountains will be limited to highs in the upper 70s.
On Thursday:
The low in the Mid-Atlantic will drift towards the Northeast on
Thursday. As this occurs, 500 mb heights will inch upward in Georgia
and temperatures will climb slightly. Look for afternoon highs that
are 5 to 9 degrees above seasonal averages. This will translate to
highs in the low 90s in central Georgia and upper 80s/lower 90s in
north Georgia. The rising heights will be accompanied by falling
precipitable water values, leading to conditions that will be
increasingly hostile towards rainfall. Thus no rain is expected in
the state on Thursday.
Albright
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 209 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Key Messages:
- The dry pattern continues through at least the weekend, with
   only slight rain chances returning next week.
- Above normal temps with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s
   through Saturday, cooling to the mid 80s Sunday into next week.
Dry and warm conditions will persist through the start of the
weekend as a cut off low over the Carolina coast lifts north and
a mid-level ridge builds over the region in its wake. Between
subsidence from the ridge and decreasing PWAT values, rain
chances over Georgia will be minimal through Saturday, further
contributing to the potential for a rapid onset drought in the
region in the coming days/weeks. Temperatures will be about 5-10
degrees above normal during this time, with highs in the upper
80s to low 90s and overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s.
Sunday into early next week, the ridge will be kicked east as
broad mid-level troughing pushes across the Great Plains and
settle over the Midwest. This expansive trough will cover much of
the eastern U.S., with a few shortwaves wrapping around it and
pushing through the Southeast U.S., bringing periods of increased
(but still not impressive) moisture. Models have started to back
off a bit on rainfall chances, but the overall setup could still
support periodic slight rain chances (10-15% PoPs) each day next
week. Additionally, the longwave troughing will bring a slightly
cooler airmass into the region, with high temps in the low to mid
80s.
Culver
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Isolated showers and a couple of brief thunderstorms are
anticipated in north Georgia through 15Z today. Additional
isolated shower and storm activity is expected in western and
central Georgia between 18Z today and 03Z Thursday. Any impacts
from this activity at the TAF sites should be brief. Light and
variable winds will continue through 15Z today, then west
northwest (270-330 degrees) winds in the 3 to 10 kt range are
expected through 00Z Thursday.
//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Low confidence in the occurrence of showers or a brief
thunderstorm through 14Z today.
High confidence in the visibility and ceiling forecasts.
Moderate confidence in the wind direction forecast.
Albright
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          84  62  87  62 /  20  10   0   0
Atlanta         87  67  89  65 /  20  20   0   0
Blairsville     79  57  81  58 /  10  10   0   0
Cartersville    87  63  90  61 /  20  10   0   0
Columbus        90  68  92  65 /  20  20   0   0
Gainesville     84  63  87  63 /  20  10   0   0
Macon           88  65  90  64 /  20  20   0   0
Rome            89  63  91  62 /  20  10   0   0
Peachtree City  87  64  89  62 /  20  20   0   0
Vidalia         89  66  91  66 /  10  10   0   0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Albright
LONG TERM....Culver
AVIATION...Albright

NWS FFC Office Area Forecast Discussion