Smithdale, Mississippi Weather Forecast Discussion

789
FXUS64 KLIX 290443
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1143 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry forecast through midweek with hot afternoons and
   comfortable low temperatures.
- Rain and storm chances slowly increase toward the middle and
   end of the week.
- Winds and seas are likely to increase later on in the week and
   next weekend leading to Cautionary headlines or Small Craft
   Advisories.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Upper level ridging continues over the region through today, which
with the higher heights we can expect another well above average
day in terms of temperatures. The strong surface heating will,
however, keep dewpoint temperatures in the lower 60s through
mixing, helping it be a bit more comfortable outside.
Going into tonight and into Tuesday the upper level flow regime
starts to really breakdown and become rather stagnant as ridging
develops over the Great Lakes. That said at the surface we will
be following an interesting low that has recently developed over
the central Gulf that is forecast to drop southward into the Bay
of Campeche. At this time nothing much to write home about with
this system, and with both TCs in the southwest Atlantic about to
exit stage right, just a continuation of the dry/comfortable
pattern. (Frye)
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Going into the long term that stagnant upper level pattern from
the short term gets way more interesting quickly. A weak trough
over the southeast US will break off and develop an upper level
low that will likely set up pretty close to our CWFA. To the
north, the ridge continues to reside over the Great Lakes. This
forms a Rex Block over the eastern portions of the US. At the
surface, a strong ridge wedges down the Appalachians and increases
surface pressure gradient and an increase in surface winds. This
starts to take shape as early as Thursday with a stronger easterly
flow developing. With this strong easterly flow expect water to
start to pile up along the eastern facing coasts given the
increase in swell and long easterly fetch.
A front will develop and move through and likely stall right
along the coast late in the week. Rain chances do increase then
and remain into the weekend as the diurnal cycle meets the cold
core low aloft and surface frontal boundary. The QPF gradient
right now seems to be rather impressive with most of the rain
along the immediate Louisiana coast. Going into Sunday at least on
the GFS a surface low develops over the Gulf and tries to move
northward. The flow still supports higher seas and perhaps some
minor coastal flooding if not sooner. Keeping in mind this feature
develops under a cold core low, so the likelihood of this being a
tropical entity is low. (Frye)
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
VFR conditions are expected for all terminals through this cycle.
Winds will remain light and variable generally less than 10 knots.
(Frye)
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Offshore flow will continue into the workweek as weak low pressure
slowly develops over the southwestern Gulf and remain there through
midweek. This will continue to produce light to moderate offshore
flow over the next few days. Overall, not anticipating a lot of
impacts through midweek, but a few showers and thunderstorms may
begin to develop over the coastal waters Tuesday and Wednesday.
Winds, seas/waves, and rain chances will begin to increase late in
the week. Cautionary headlines or even Small Craft Advisories may
bee needed late in the week and into next weekend. (Frye)
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  88  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  90  67  92  69 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  90  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  90  73  92  73 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  90  70  90  70 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  91  67  91  66 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF

NWS LIX Office Area Forecast Discussion