Smithdale, Mississippi Weather Forecast Discussion

170
FXUS64 KLIX 210450
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1150 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
If you step back a day or so, models showed weak ridging aloft over
the southeastern US over the weekend but starting to weaken going
into next week. Well, looks like that ridge is breaking down a
little faster than previous forecasts as weak shortwave slides
through the Lower Mississippi River Valley Sunday into Monday. CAMs
really seem to have a better grasp on what that translates to in
terms of rain potential in that timeframe compared to global models.
Thus, increased POPs for Sunday by a good 10-15% for many areas
which puts areal coverage in the 20-40% range. Not looking at high-
end storms but a few strong ones not out of the question looking at
sounding profiles.
MEFFER
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Latest suite of global model runs are aiming for latter half of this
upcoming week for next local pattern change. Overall agreement in
those solutions suggests a PACNW trough dropping down southeast
across the Rockies mid week and amplifying as it tracks into and
through the southern US. That bring a decent chance for rain and
quite noticeable drop in temps end of the week into next weekend.
While similar solutions would tend to increase longer term forecast
confidence, not quite there yet considering said trough is offshore
attm and not being sampled by UA network. In addition, the featured
trough/low is really just a piece of what`s up there now. So, we`ll
see how the next several runs go to get a better idea as to what to
expect late this week.
MEFFER
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
VFR conditions in place this evening should hold until midday Sunday
when CU field develops. Weak shortwave brings return of scattered
showers/storms on Sunday. Will say its borderline whether PROB30 can
be justified but have them in TAFs regardless. Even with scattered
convection, likely still going to be
MEFFER
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Surface ridge will remain generally east to northeast of the coastal
waters throughtout the forecast period. This will yield light
onshore winds around 10 knots +/-5kts and seas around 2 feet.
Increased rain chances the next couple days means higher potential
for temporary wind direction changes, increases and a bump in seas.
Otherwise, minimal marine hazards expected.
MEFFER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  91  68  90 /  10  30  10  10
BTR  70  92  70  91 /   0  40  10  30
ASD  68  90  69  89 /   0  20   0  20
MSY  74  92  75  91 /   0  20  10  20
GPT  72  90  72  87 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  68  92  68  89 /  10  10   0  10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...ME
MARINE...ME

NWS LIX Office Area Forecast Discussion