Smith River, California Weather Forecast Discussion

785
FXUS66 KEKA 202012
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
112 PM PDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Another round of scattered thunderstorms is expected
this evening over the eastern interior. Warmer and drier weather
will gradually build in Sunday through Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A few lingering showers quickly dissipated
this morning. Lingering tropical moisture and instability still hold
the risk of promoting scattered thunderstorms this afternoon in
trinity County and near the Yolla Bollys (25% chance at any given
point). The risk will be greatest between 1400 and 1900 this
evening. Otherwise, lingering cloud cover will generally promote
subdued conditions through the day Sunday. Building northwest flow
will help push out mid and upper level clouds for the interior Sunday
but will also likely reinforce a gloomy marine layer along the coast
for at least one more day.
There is high confidence that high pressure will at least briefly
arch over the area Monday and Tuesday, allowing interior highs to
crest back into the 90s. The marine layer onshore will likely become
more diurnal with better clearing in the afternoon but shallow fog
an stratus overnight, especially in wind protected areas such as
Humboldt Bay.
There remains much great forecast uncertainty by mid next week. The
majority of models show a cutoff low meandering into southern
California. The impacts of this motion are more uncertain. While
moderated temperature and greater cloud cover are a near certainty,
there is wide disagreement for rain potential. While the low will
pull up moisture form the south, the general northeast flow around
the low will not be favorable for widespread wetting rain. And
showers that do form will be most likely around the rim of
Sacramento Valley where the wind best aligns with topography.
Broadly speaking rain chances have decrease in most recent model
runs with a 30 to 40% chance of wetting rain in southern Mendocino
and Lake Counties and less than a 10% chance further north. The vast
majority of models suggest a cooler and more moist pattern through
the end of the month, with long range predictions of above normal
precipitation. /JHW
&&
.AVIATION...Tropical moisture aloft is keeping elevated ceilings of
BKN-OVC with VFR categories mixed with periodic bouts of LIFR/IFR
from low clouds along the North Coast. Light winds expected today
expected for weak gusts inland. Forecast confidence in dry
conditions has increased today with the possibility for fog drip at
KACV late tonight into Sunday morning. North coast can expect mist
and short bursts of fog through midday at terminals near higher
terrain with a return to marine stratus (ceiling probabilities: 70%

NWS EKA Office Area Forecast Discussion