Smiley, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

054
FXUS64 KEWX 191745
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1245 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Continued warm conditions over the weekend and into next week
- Pattern uncertainty leading to low confidence in rain chances
  Tuesday and Wednesday (currently 20-40%)
&&
.SHORT TERM (THROUGH SUNDAY)...
Through the weekend, continued warm conditions are forecast across
South-Central Texas. There is slight increase in precipitable
water vales on Saturday and Sunday. Very isolated afternoon and
early evening showers are forecast, but most locations will
remain dry.
&&
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
Warmer conditions are forecast to develop Monday and Tuesday, with
both low and high temperatures increasing a couple of degrees.
There remains a large spread in the global ensemble guidance
with the strength and positioning of the upper level ridge as
well as positioning of an upper level low to the north of it
Tuesday into Wednesday. Earlier runs of the GEFS maintained a
stronger ridge over the area and the upper level low farther
north across the central Plains and upper Mississippi River
Valley, leading to continued warm and mainly dry conditions.
However, many of the ECMWF and UKMET ensemble members show a
more amplified flow, with a deeper and farther south upper level
low which flattens the ridge south into Mexico. The operational
12Z GFS has trended slightly more amplified. The more amplified
scenario brings a weak cold front and rain chances into the
area sometime late Tuesday or Wednesday. NBM PoPs and
temperatures, as well as are current forecast, reflect this
uncertainty with rain chances at 20-40% Tuesday and Wednesday
and a modest decrease in temperatures Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
All terminals will be VFR through the TAF periods. Winds overnight
will be light and variable in the Austin and San Antonio areas
early and then out of the southeast at 5-10 kts by late afternoon.
DRT should continue to see 5 to 10 knot southeasterly winds then
more ESE at night. Isolated showers are depicted in the latest rapid
refresh runs, but the coverage looks to be too low to show any
impacts on the TAF locations.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              71  96  73  96 /   0   0   0  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  69  95  71  95 /   0   0   0  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     68  95  71  95 /   0   0   0  10
Burnet Muni Airport            69  92  71  92 /   0   0   0  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           74  95  74  97 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        69  94  71  94 /   0   0   0  10
Hondo Muni Airport             68  94  71  95 /   0   0   0  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        68  96  71  96 /   0   0   0  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   68  94  71  94 /   0  10   0  30
San Antonio Intl Airport       72  94  73  95 /   0   0   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           72  96  74  96 /   0   0   0  10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...76
LONG TERM...76
AVIATION...18

NWS EWX Office Area Forecast Discussion