Skellytown, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

546
FXUS64 KAMA 060532
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1232 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
- Off and on chances for rain and thunderstorms will continue this
  morning through Wednesday with the highest chances Monday night.
- Much cooler, below average, temperatures are expected for most
  areas this afternoon, but will become more widespread on Tuesday
  and Wednesday.
- Warm and dry conditions are likely to return late this week and
  into next weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
Isolated showers or storms may still be ongoing across the area
after sunrise this morning with rain chances around 10-20 percent.
At the surface, a cold front (which is slowly moving south across
the northwestern Panhandles at the time of this writing) should be
through at least half if not more of the CWA by sunrise. The front
may stall at some point during the day, but most areas will start to
feel the effects of the front today, especially for areas further
north. Cloud cover combined with the cooler air mass behind the
front will keep temperatures will below average for at least two
thirds of the area today, with highs staying in the lower 60s to
perhaps even the upper 50s. Model guidance varies tremendously
with the extent of the cloud cover behind the front as well as the
highs for today. However, blended guidance (such as the NBM)
really struggle with these drastic post frontal temperature
changes so have leaned heavily on cooler model guidance for highs
for today. Outside of isolated showers or storms during the day,
the better chances will hold off until the evening into Tuesday
morning when a weak disturbance traverses over the region. Severe
storms are quite unlikely as we will be behind the cold front but
cannot rule out some lightning with the activity.
Isolated to scattered rain showers or storms may still be ongoing to
start the day on Tuesday with the highest chances across the
northern half of the CWA. Hi-res guidance currently suggests there
may be a bit of a break in rain chances going into Tuesday afternoon
before they increase once again on Tuesday night. Rainfall totals
will likely be quite modest, with only a 10-20 percent chance for
any location to exceed a half inch during this short term forecast
period. Widespread, cooler temperatures are going to occur on
Tuesday as cooler H850 temperatures drop into the lower double
digits to potentially even the single digits Celsius. Similar to
today, have leaned heavily on cooler guidance for Tuesday, which
resulted in highs ranging from the upper 50s to lower 70s. As
mentioned previously, rain chances should increase going into
Tuesday night as another weak shortwave embedded in the upper
level flow moves over the area and potentially kicks off scattered
rain showers or storms.
Muscha
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
High pressure will begin to strengthen across south Texas on
Wednesday and a ridge is expected to build in over the Plains late
this week and into next weekend. Before the ridging pattern sets up,
zonal flow is expected on Wednesday which will keep temperatures
cooler for one more day with highs in the 70s. Subtle disturbances
may lead to scattered showers or storms on Wednesday, with chances
only around 10-20 percent. With the ridge building in over the
region, temperatures will steadily climb back up into the 80s
Thursday through the remainder of this long term forecast period.
Cannot rule out some location reaching the 90 degree mark next
weekend, especially on Sunday when current model guidance has WAA
maximized over the CWA. Thursday through next weekend looks to
remain on the dry side given high pressure in place across the
Panhandles.
Muscha
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
Isolated showers and storms are possible through the overnight at
the sites. Confidence in impacts to the terminals is low so will
amend the TAFs if necessary. A slow moving cold front will shift
winds from out of the south to out of the north at the sites,
with all sites having northerly winds by around 12z. The winds
should remain out of the north to northeast through the remainder
of this TAF cycle. Additional showers or storms will be possible
later in this TAF issuance with relatively higher confidence at
KAMA so a PROB30 group has been included. Low clouds are likely
behind the front with KGUY becoming MVFR for much of this TAF
cycle. Low clouds will eventually make it to KDHT and KAMA, but
when that occurs is low confidence and may actually occur sooner
than the current forecast depicts.
Muscha
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05

NWS AMA Office Area Forecast Discussion