Shawnee, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

129
FXUS63 KEAX 111637
AFDEAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1137 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures will persist through at least the
  middle of next week. Temperatures may be 15+ degrees above
  normal Friday - Monday.
- Multiple chances for showers and storms next week. Greatest
  chances Sunday/Sunday night. Isolated afternoon showers and
  storms Monday - Wednesday
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Patchy dense fog this morning, mainly in river valleys and low-lying
areas, will dissipate soon after sunrise. Otherwise, focus shifts to
the building heat in the area. As has been discussed in
previous discussions, upper-level ridging will continue to build
into the middle of the country late this week and into the
weekend. Southerly to southwesterly low-level flow will advect
unseasonably warm and moist air into the area. This pattern
peaks Friday - Saturday as the upper ridge axis centers right
over the region. Lower-level thickness values support
temperatures in the middle 90s across the area Friday and
Saturday. Most of the forecast area has at least a 10-30 percent
chance of seeing highs in excess of 95 degrees on Friday. These
probabilities increase Saturday, particularly in our eastern
zones where there is a greater than 90% chance for highs
exceeding 95 degrees. Highs Saturday will top out in the upper
90s in these high probability areas and when looking at the
potential for 100+ degree heat, probabilities are zero across
the area. Humidity will also be higher than normal with
dewpoints in the low to mid 60s on Friday and middle 60s on
Saturday. This slight uptick in dewpoints means heat index
values will be pushing the upper 90s with some areas, especially
in our east, where hotter temperatures will also reside, may be
near 100 degrees for Saturday. At this time, the potential for
any heat headlines look low.
Sunday, the upper ridge begins to be pushed eastward as a fairly
strong shortwave trough moves into the central High Plains and
lifts northeastward into NE. This brings a chance for showers
and storms to the area Sunday afternoon across eastern KS and
western MO, then spreads eastward overnight. Models show
relatively weak instability but with increasing mid and upper-
level flow rounding the base of the shortwave, and a neutral to
negative tilt, deep-layer shear near or greater than 30 kts
would support some potential for strong storms if the
instability can sync up. For Monday afternoon through Wednesday
afternoon, with the upper-ridge weakened and shunted southeast
of the area, we`ll see the potential for isolated afternoon
showers and storms. Forecast soundings show high-based
convection would be possible each afternoon with between
500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE available. Late next week, the potential
for showers and storms continues as it looks like a cold front
pushes south into the area Thursday-Thursday night.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1133 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
VFR conditions through the perid. A few cumulus in the 4-5K foot
range are expected through the afternoon hours, which will
rapidly discipate towards sunset. Light southeasterly winds will
prevail through the overnight, but stronger winds aloft will
keep a wider spread of dew point depressions making fog less
likely Friday morning. These stronger winds aloft after expected
to mix towards the surface after 15Z Friday, creating gusty
conditions.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...BT

NWS EAX Office Area Forecast Discussion